One recent sale:

SALE:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26044629 Sold for:

MG Drill Sergeant (Outdated at 92.5, mini at 95)

GE White Russian (Unpriced, mini at 63)

Pro KS MW Hot Lightning Rod (unpriced, mini at 65)

DBD Bonk Helm (33)

Potassium Bonnet (like 11 at the time)

(95 + 63 + 65 + 33 + 11) * 0.9 = 240.3 (rounding to 240)

Histories:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095988127?time=1442473200&compare=1444287600

Drill mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27359659 Sold for DBD Tipped (100) + 5 keys

= 105

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27146498 B/O of 95 (1 month)

Using 95.

Russian mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27160088

Sold for Planets Gibus (~48) + 5 buds (15)

= 63

Histories:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028687191?time=1444287600&compare=1444374000

Using 63.

Lightning Rod mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27091464 Sold for excess of B/O (60)

Shotgun kits are ~9 ( http://puu.sh/lwWTT/635491f276.png ), gonna be generous and say it adds 5 keys.

Using 65.

Almost a refresh. So cloooose.

Let it ride.