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"Flipknife trilby"
Found this as well doing the moon swagman
The sales
Sold for moon swagman (~123):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23222354
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128484499?time=1447315200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128484499?time=1447401600 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128484499?time=1447315200&compare=1447401600
Mini swagman:
Sold for orbfire lucha (~23) + gfetti metal modest (~46) + orbfire reggae (~20) + gfetti thirst (~28) + Spec aussie FaN (~15) + 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27142161 buyout 123, lol coincidence
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097460928?time=1445065200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097460928?time=1445151600 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097460928?time=1445065200&compare=1445151600
0.9*(23+46+20+28) +15+3 = ~123
Using this to do the swagman as well
-> 123 keys
============================================================================================
Only clean sale in forever. Ned's is duped.
123 should work
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3
Lol the last comment on the trade: "got anything else to add?"
Well I guess sometimes you have to wait a year for some profit.
yeah I guess its because in the comment above a miami hat was offered in addition, but he retracted that instantly
*sees suggestion*
*buys hat*
*sees your name in the comments of every suggestion*
*wonders why I see you in the comments of every suggestion* :')
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQaa3r6XagI
that'll say, that's a really nice pun. really nice
Hmm. It looks like the b/o was 80
Hmmm I didnt see a buyout initially. just checked all the offers to find it. Do you think it's worth capping at that? Im not really sure since he got offered 80 and did not end up making a deal. I dont know why not; it may be that the offerer lost interstest (or somehow did not manage to get that 1 extra key), but it may also be that the seller changed his mind.
He hid that post where he said that, no visible b/o on his notes. I mean this sale is extraordinary high no doubt and most likely an outlier but yeah.
Id say its very high but I wouldnt call it an outlier, since theres nothing else to compare it to :P
There is something to compare it to, though. The 75 key offer that he was willing to take if 5 more keys were added. Certainly don't think this should be more than 80. And arguably, it shouldn't be used at all.
Hmm, on one hand I agree; since it took him ages to sell this sale is likely no "accurate representation of the market" in that aspect, but on the other hand, the offer of 80 was 4 months ago.
Even if he sold it for 80 back then, and now, 4 months later, someone offers the moon swagman on it and it is taken, it could be considered as "only recent sale".
I guess in this situation here its not so much a matter of accurately representing the market, but more reporting a sale. Same with the stormy 13th counter. No way that should realisticly be 90, but its the only sale there is on it in ages.
Well, let me put it this way. In 1 year of selling this item, the highest pure offers he got were 65-75 keys pure. He has been willing to take 80 keys. Does it seem reasonable now to value it at 125? In general, I like to think of bp.tf's pricing of unusuals as what an unusual can sell for in ~1 month. We can't expect traders to be willing to sell a hat for a year before being able to sell for the bp.tf listed price. Now I know sometimes we just report sales as is. But that's typically for high tier hats and in situations where we really have no reference. Here we have a pretty good idea about value looking at his trade and offers.
I would definitely have waited for another sale if this hat would have re-appeared on the market. For me, the difference between reporting sales and accurately representing the market is distinguished by the frequency at which something sells.
With regards to the offers you mention you make a valid point, and I think this can be seen as a difference in opinions, which would make the suggestion a subjective matter (which is probably the problem at hand).
I dont have any personal interest in this passing, and Im willing to close it if you are against it. I can tell you Id defend it with my life if I were the one to pay that much, though :P
Well, your options here are to either resuggest at 80 or to close this. Up to you :P.