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First hat
https://backpack.tf/item/3268804242
Sale 1
Seller
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063448134?time=1446537600&compare=1446710400
Buyer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075816743?time=1446624000&compare=1446710400
Sold for Massed Flies Master's Yellow Belt
52 keys
Sale 2
Seller
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075816743?time=1448352000&compare=1448438400
Buyer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142626612?time=1448265600&compare=1448438400
Blizzardy Storm Pomade Prince+ 12 keys in sweets
42+12 equals 54. 54*0.9 equals 48.6
49 keys
Second Hat
Sale 3
https://backpack.tf/item/3318024846
Bulk not using
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043992035?time=1444633200&compare=1444546800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044913452?time=1444460400&compare=1444806000
Calculations and Information copyright of Stark Industries.
What about your purchase? miami charmers + 1.5 keys in sweets it seems. a range of ~39-52 wont be too huge.
Edit: Also sale 3 was not bulk, it was 50 pure: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26663549
Mine was several hours after the suggestion was created. He was the one offering the hat from the start. He said he wanted to trade 1 on 1 twice and after tried to convince me i had to add more. He ended up saying he was making a spy set with it, using a Strange Puffy Provocateur and a Noh Mercy, all painted white, which i think will look really good indeed.
We have 3 sales at the range suggested while only 1 outside the range, that is 75%. So, I think we can leave it as outlier since there are only 4 valid sales in total in the past 2 months.
I cant be sure about the amount of keys in the sale you mentioned since i dont undestand german, and the guy only said in the post that he wanted an offer he could not refuse.
He also traded more expensive stuff the same day. And if you count the keys that is more than 120 keys.
Fine considering we have 3 sales at 50 I guess we can agree that 39 might be an outlier. Well nice profit you probably made there. :P