Suggestion: Burning Flames Ye Olde Baker Boy at 105–115 keys

Price Suggestion

~230 keys

burning

171 votes up

14 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Fri, 18 Dec 15 18:34:51 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Too impulsive, my deadly corrosive dosage

Turns out I didn't really needed those Misty Skull Tosslecap and Stormy Bonk Boy minis :P Well at least they're update now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sale #1

Sold for a Stormy Storm Bonk Boy (~36.5, mini below) + Orbiting Fire Pom Pommed Provocateur (~10, mini below) + Misty Skull Troublemaker's Tosslecap (~117.5, mini below) + Vintage Professional Killstreak Lugermorph (~9)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27423853

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135547676?time=1448006400&compare=1448092800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108149499?time=1448092800&compare=1448006400

(36.5 + 10 + 117.5 + 9) * .9 = 156 keys ~> outlier

Stormy Bonk Boy mini

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5659669cba8d889b6da94ed1 ~36.5 keys

OF Pom Pommed mini

Sold for 10 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052156809?time=1448265600&compare=1448179200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942?time=1448092800&compare=1448179200

Misty Tosslecap mini

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56594921dea9e9b5617f7d2b ~117.5 keys

Sale #2

Sold for an Ancient Codex Captain Space Mann ~> gonna use this for the Space Mann; not using.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081631356?time=1447142400&compare=1447488000

Sale #3

Sold for a Black Max Head (~29.5 at the time) + Professional Killstreak Australium Stickybomb Launcher (~21) + Scorching Flames Ze Goggles (~56, mini below) + 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27243378

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081631356?time=1445842800&compare=1446188400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102469410?time=1445929200&compare=1446188400

((29.5 + 21 + 56) * .9) + 20 = 115 keys

Scorching Goggles mini

Sold for 55 keys + ~1 key in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104991389?time=1447488000&compare=1447401600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159542421?time=1447488000&compare=1447401605

55 + 1 = 56 keys

Sale #4

Sold for an Energy Orb Purple Range Sniper Rifle ~> can't find a proper mini for the Enery Orb Purple Range; not using

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27219617

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102469410?time=1444978800&compare=1444719600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1444978800&compare=1444719600

Sale #5

Sold for a Sulphurous Conjurer's Cowl (~62.5) + 20 keys + Specialized Killstreak Australium Scattergun (~34)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27177026

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149031152?time=1444374000&compare=1444633200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1444546800&compare=1444719600

((62.5 + 34) * .9) + 20 = 107 keys

Conclusion:

Compared to the other sales, Sale #1 is an obvious outlier. Not using Sale #2 as I'm going to use it for the Space Mann. Can't use Sale #4 as I couldn't find a proper mini for the Unusual Sniper Rifle. Sales at 107 and 115 seem to capture the hat's most common trade points; taking 105-115 keys as the new price.

Additional and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.

Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ﾉ

Got sales info on the Unusual Purple Range FT Energy Orb Price (SALE 4)

I sold one on SCM on 15th November 2015

Proof: http://imgur.com/a/WSVA3

Sale Price: $322 USD (what they paid)

After GabeN Tax: $280 USD (what I received)

Average Key Price 15 Nov 2015 = $2.40

Therefore:

High Value = 134 Keys

Low Value = 116 Keys

Average = 125 Keys

My Opinion: The high value of 115 keys is too low. I suspect the sale you regarded as an outlier is valid and should be used as the high value.

Disclaimer: I own a Burning Baker so have an active interest in its pricing.

Median is 125, right?

125 * .9 = 112.5 keys. Supports the range.

No overpay in SCM sales as they can be related straight back to keys. 125 keys is right here so your high is too low.

You should also reconsider your outlier. I think there is enough evidence to suggest it is valid as a high value.

Personally I would have closed this and redone the submission with this additional information with a more appropriate high value but you seem determined to stick to your range so I will leave it to the pricing mod.

Well, the guy you sold it to is selling it at 90 keys and it has been up for a while at that. I did see the 100 pure offer on your trade.. but still, may not really be 125. Might be closer to 90- or 100-125. Keep in mind, if someone wanted to buy the hat, they would have to sell keys to do it and there's tax on the keys. SCM sales can be a bit dicey. We accept them, but like to use them in conjunction with trades for items.

Yes I own one, yes this is my first post, here's a little counter evidence.

Counter #1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27128287

Recent offer of; Sunbeams Fruitshoot ~65 Keys

Vivid Plasma YellowBelt ~ 69 Keys

Orbiting planets Veil ~ 39 Keys

(On a duped one no less)

Counter #2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27374845

My own trade, received an offer today of;

Frost Wraith Wrap ~ Unpriced, by effect and hat we can assume somewhere in the region of 90-115 Keys

Hearts Noble~ 50 Keys

Just a little bit, cut me down if you wish I'd be understanding of it, as a first time poster I don't really know how to structure these sorts of things.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27374845 - your clean Baker Boy is unsold for 3 weeks at 170-180 keys? Or it's cause you're selling it with the other stuff as a set?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27128287 - 2 months unsold at 150 keys. Duped though.

The Beams Fruit Shoot is 6 months outdated. Can't make a mini for it, but I'm guessing it's probably in the ~50 range now.

The Vivid Yellow Belt is outdated for a year. Gonna take it as 38 (see the mini below)

Sold w/ ~2 keys of sweets for a Ghosts Desert Marauder (~40)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062713417?time=1448092800&compare=1448179200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075998447?time=1447920000&compare=1448179200

40 - 2 = ~38 keys

The Planets Veil's recently outdated. Like the Fruti Shoot, I can't make a mini for it. Probably won't deviate much from the price.

(50 + 38 + 39) * .9 = 114 keys, fits in the range.

Don't the Beams Fruit Shoot and Planets Veil's values seriously, though. They're just assumptions.

Selling it with the other stuff, looking for specific effects such as energies and Spellbound/Arcana, but I digress I still find that value a little low.

Judging by Critially's research though, that offer I mentioned involving the Frost Wraith and the Hearts Noble (Recently repriced) is actually a solid 140 Key offer.

Whilst it might be an outlier I just think some of the offers I mentioned do deviate quite a bit from the range, and regardless of whether you take the values of those hats seriously, they're still the correct value by current standards until they're repriced, hence the person offering them believed they were offering somewhere in the 173 region.

"they're still the correct value by current standards until they're repriced"

Well that wouldn't be right. You don't really think items retain their prices right? It's called depreciation. The Veil + Fruit Shoot + Yellow Belt offer is more supportive evidence than anything, actually.

If you have a problem with the suggestion, you can either counter it yourself (assuming you know how to make a suggestion and have valid counter-evidence i.e. sales, sellers) or request a counter from an experienced suggester to suggest for you. But at the moment, this is perfectly fine. Thank you for your input.

Don't actually know one, so I guess that's it, unless someone would actually want to step in and suggest for me.

Im going to make a mini on the wraith wrap:

seller before~~ http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057171057?time=1448265600

seller after~~ http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057171057

SOLD for a Ghosts Outta sight (also unpriced)

Mini for outta sight~~ SOLD + 11 key sweets for a duped Burning trophy belt (100)

seller before~~ http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089076185?time=1447616457

seller after~~ http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089076185?time=1448006400

Outta sight is~~ around 100.

Idk guys im lost

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1448524800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1448870400

Clean sale on a Scorch Buccaneer's ~ 145 Keys

Plus 25 Pure and Sweets (?, not sure what)

Both hats clean as stated earlier.

Bicorne's outdated for almost a year. Will look into that tomorrow afternoon since I have school. Thanks for the additional evidence.

Not really evidence, regardless of how you phrase it, I suggest a mini for the Buccan at about

145*0.9 (as you used for the other prices) ~130.5 Keys

Using the year old values round about 1.3 as far as I can tell it's ~111 Keys

+ 25 in Pure

136 Keys total, still above your range.

Well the Scorching Buccaneer's has no recent valid sales; guess I could use the sale to update that.

The Beams Baker Boy has recently been updated at 90 keys. In terms of effect tiers, this greatly supportive.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56482e92dea9e91f577f771f

Other tiers and their pricing is irrelevant. Have a look at the Heart Head Warmer for instance. http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Head%20Warmer

Burning is a higher tier than circling heart right. Not always. Heart is 750 keys whereas burning is 350 keys.

Your comment here is anything but supportive. It just shows you are just grasping for straws.

Not sure about the overpay business you're getting to here. Guess this is a case where the it's the suggester's judgement to apply overpay?

https://backpack.tf/vote/id/566f246cdea9e9f3067f7671 - applied overpay on an SCM mini + countless more times, just can't seem to find where.

Even if you're right about the overpay issue, wouldn't that call for a range of 105-125? It's much smaller and encapsulates 3 sales. By going with 125-155, you're pretty much ignoring 2 other sales, both of which are closer to 125 than to 155.

"Your comment here is anything but supportive."

How so? Not sure if the case of the Headwarmer applies to this case. Yes, tiers don't always matter. But the example you gave doesn't back up your statement much. The C. Heart Head Warmer rarely, if ever, hits the market. The trader only put his on the market after 2 years of owning it cause he needed money http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27390586 If he failed at selling, I'm sure he'll never sell it again. And it went to someone who intends to keep it. I'd overpay a lot just to get an Anti-Freeze Villain's Veil, and I'm sure you'd overpay for your dream hat too.

"It just shows you are just grasping for straws."

There's no need to state that. I'm only working with what I know. I admit, my knowledge of pricing higher tier unusuals is very limited even though I have over 300 accepted suggestions. You wouldn't call out a high school sophomore for not knowing Basic Calculus, would you?

It's cool. Let it ride. The pricing mod will work out whether this is a valid suggestion or not.

Thanks for the input. I see where you're heading with the overpay and effect tiers arguments, I just don't agree with it since it goes against what I, a price suggester, know. No ill will, okay?

I don't know who's right between us, though; price suggesting isn't limited to a certain set of rules so I guess it's up to the suggester to decide what happens. Probably the hardest part of our jobs is defending our actions, especially to against experienced traders and mods. Pretty much why I write essays just to prove something, kek.

In the end, it's a price mod's final judgement that will settle this, so for now, cheers. And again, thanks for the input. Good luck selling yours!

Damn thats how you prove a point. Right fucking there. I have always been a fan of you discovery

*flattering intensifies*

Most recent sale for a duped burning honcho ~125

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094923192?time=1449561600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094923192?time=1448956800

Duped Honcho

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27415343 - stormy 13th crown + stormy bonk boy + TW robo brigade + 7 keys

Mini for crown - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/562f327fdea9e9fb407f766f - see my comment ~70-80

Bonk is updated

http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Firewall%20Helmet/Tradable/Craftable/57 - brigade has a seller in classies at 19 which should be close enough

- Will be a sale at 125. It was most likely offered on the honcho because he never had a trade up, but the honchos did.

So the sales here are at 107, 113 (counting the rifle as 100-125), 115 (half pure), 125 (honcho trade), 156. Personally, I would probably throw out the low and high outlier and go with 115-125, but an argument could be made for 105-125.

One last thing - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27568895 - could probably update the secret ushanka. This one was bought for a duped burning honchos

Thanks Polar. The removal of the low and high outliers makes sense. Personally I am comfortable with the 115-125.