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From the spliff that I lift and inhale, it ain't hard to tell.
Took a looooong break before returning to the train. Miscounted the keys. RIP. Thankfully, I didn't use this value.
Sale #1
Sold for 40 keys
http://imgur.com/cCBVJby ~> credits to Alberny for confirming
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27312112
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072240925?time=1446710400&compare=1446624000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108149499?time=1446537600&compare=1446710400
Sale #2
Sold for an Orbiting Fire Bonk Boy (~26, mini below)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072240925?time=1444374000&compare=1444287600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093234248?time=1444374000&compare=1444460400
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27174145 ~> Stormy Bonk Boy had no trade, so it's more likely to be offered to the OF Bonk Boy
26 * .9 = 23 keys ~> outlier
OF Bonk Boy mini
Sold for an Orbiting Fire Batter's Helm (~19) + 9 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27490073
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074719564?time=1448265600&compare=1448611200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080242209?time=1448611200&compare=1448524800
(19 * .9) + 9 = 26 keys
Sale #3
Sold for an Eerie Orbiting Fire Samur-Eye (~38.5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27277244
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083611023?time=1446796800&compare=1446883200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042438470?time=1446796800&compare=1446969600
38.5 * .9 = 35 keys
Sale #4
Sold for a Misty Skull Counterfeit Billycock ~> couldn't find a mini for the Billycock, guess I could use this sale to update that.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27228695
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042438470?time=1445410800&compare=1445324400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281?time=1445238000&compare=1445410800
Sale #5
Sold w/ a Sunbeams Thirst Blood for a Duped Flaming Lantern Bonk Boy ~> can't use
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031690733?time=1447574400&compare=1447747200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051905623?time=1447574400&compare=1447747200
Conclusion
5 sales, using only 2 of them. Sale #2 is an obvious outlier compared to the other sales. I couldn't find a mini for the Misty Billycock, so I guess I could use that sale #3 to update it instead. Can't use sale #5 for obvious reasons. Sales at 40 and 35 seem to capture the hat's common trade points; taking 35-40 as the new price.
Additional and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.
Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ