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I clicked create suggestion before actually finishing it....
This exists too. Spectacular
1 of 1
Sale 1:
Sold for S Pro Pan
(Seller's Bp)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154736404?time=1446883200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154736404?time=1446969600
=11 Keys
Pan:
3 well-bumped sellers at 12
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Frying+Pan&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&killstreak_tier=3
However, since this particular pan has Hypno-Green, the worst possible combination, I will take 1 key under classifieds for 11
=11 Keys
Sale 2:
Sold with 2 keys for a Spec Aus BB w/ 2 Keys in parts(19)
(Buyer's Bp)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069758281?time=1444201200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069758281?time=1444287600
History of Black Box is consufing on bp.tf, but is clear on outpost:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4191156951,228,11
=17 Keys
Box:
Lots of sellers at 18
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Black+Box&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=1&killstreak_tier=2
=17 Keys
Sale 3:
Appears to have sold for 10 Keys + #73 Last Straw + G. Spec Machina, but histories do not match
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044254515?time=1443855600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044254515?time=1443942000
There were at least 2 more sales that backpack.tf couldn't register: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4145273956 . One of them was a quicksale for something between 8 and 13 keys (most likely closer to 8 given how desperate the seller looked): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27169673
So given the uncertainty, this big range is probably the safest to go with.
I talked to the guy in the last trade you posted and he did not sell it, as he remembers he bet it on sweetstakes. Besides quicksales are only information and should not be taking into the range if there are more valid sales and this one looks like an outlier.
History shows it went to the guy who offered 8 keys. I highly doubt he coincidentally won it on sweetstakes.
Anyways we don't know the amount of keys, but with 3 apparent sales around 11, that number might be good enough to include in range.