But a, a thug changes and love changes

and best friends become stranger, word up.

Requested by Clarity

Sale #1

Sold w/ a Strange Specialized Killstreak Festive Ambassador + Tinge B.M.O.C for a Stormy 13th Hour Broadband Bonnet ~> only other sale for the 13th Hour Bonnet is a bulk sale for a Beams Killer's Kabuto; probably best to price the Bonnet with this sale since it isn't on the market atm, not using.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033694102?time=1448092800&compare=1448179200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087962998?time=1448352000&compare=1448179200

Sale #2

Sold for 40 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138230812?time=1447574400&compare=1447488000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793444?time=1447488000&compare=1447574400 ~> the Topi doesn't appear on hi bp cause he bought it for a C9 Sensei the same day

Sale #3

Sold w/ a Power Surge Prince Tavish's Crown + Stormy Storm Triboniophorus Tyrannus for a Smoking Villain's Veil ~> the Topi'll come out low; don't need minis to know that :P

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082463673?time=1445238000&compare=1445065200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138230812?time=1444978800&compare=1445065200

Sale #4

Sold for a Time Warp Dead Cone (~33.5) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Frying Pan (~8)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27461900 ~> seller can't be traced on histories; Outppst histories on this trade can confirm though

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155830521?time=1447747200&compare=1447833600

((33.5 + 8) * .9) = 37 keys

Sale #5

Can't seem to trace

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102308341?time=1448179200&compare=1447747200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140071519?time=1447747200&compare=1447833600

Sale #6

Sold for an Isotope Minimal Wear Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (~40, mini below)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140071519?time=1447747200&compare=1447660800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112046826?time=1447574400&compare=1447747200

40 * .9 = 36 keys ~> I feel really uneasy about this sale since unusual weapons are really unstable :P Gonna leave this here cause it kinda supports the low-end

Isotope MW Aqua Marine mini

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Aqua%20Marine%20Rocket%20Launcher%20%28Minimal%20Wear%29

Recent Sales at:

$69.63

$115.00

$87.43

$80.87

Average comes out at ~88.23

Gonna take Keys as $2.23

88.23/2.23 = ~40 keys

Sale #7

Sold for a Skill Gotten Gains Battin' A Thousand (~39) + ~4.5 keys in sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27417870

http://i.imgur.com/H6njiyA.png

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112046826?time=1447401600&compare=1447488000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066919149?time=1447401600&compare=1447488000

((39 + 4.5) * .9) = 39 keys

Sale #8

Sold for a Cloud 9 Conjurer's Cowl (~28) + Vivid Plasma Bombing Run (~14, mini below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27316980

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070313312?time=1446015600&compare=1446188400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068731257?time=1446015600&compare=1446188400

(28 + 14) * .9 = 38 keys

C9 Cowl mini

Sold for 28 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27342595

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070313312?time=1447401600&compare=1447488000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057762755?time=1447401600&compare=1447315200

Vivid Bombing Run mini

Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Connoisseur's Cap (~14)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068632161?time=1447056000&compare=1447142400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203978028?time=1447056000&compare=1447142400

=14 keys

Sale #9

Sold w/ 27 keys for a Disco Beat Down Tipped Lid ~> can't be used to price the Topi

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070313312?time=1444374000&compare=1444460400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084294042?time=1444460400&compare=1444374000

Sale #10

Can't seem to trace

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080278192?time=1443855600&compare=1444028400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084294042?time=1443855600&compare=1443942000

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27453119 - b/o of 43 keys at 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27332926 - b/o of 45 keys at 1 month

+ 4 sellers ranging from 40-43 keys on the Classifieds.

Conclusion:

Sellers support a drop. Best to use sale #1 to price the 13th Hour Bonnet, so not using that. Sale #3 looks like an overpay offer for the Smoking Veil as it comes out low; not using. Can't trace sales #5 and #10. I'm not sure about the usage of sale #6, since I have no idea how to make a mini on Unusual Weapons; it does support the price a bit so I'm gonna leave that as supporting evidence. That leaves us with sales at 40, 37, 39 and 38; gonna go with a range of 37-40 keys.

Additional/Supportive and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.

Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ﾉ