Suggestion: Flaming Lantern Team Captain at 125–165 keys

Price Suggestion

~420 keys

lantern

138 votes up

11 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Tue, 29 Dec 15 03:54:03 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

"Halloweam captain"

Resuggesting as new sales have happened since my last suggestion. Credits to Julia and Make hats, not war for bringing those to my attention

The sales

Sale 1:

Sold + duped burning dixie (~40) for duped knifestorm modest (~180)

Cant find out who offered

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1446015600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1446102000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1446015600&compare=1446102000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057179499?time=1446102000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057179499?time=1446188400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057179499?time=1446102000&compare=1446188400

Minis sale 1

Mini dixie

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27275379

Sold for peace panama + s. awper + 10 in sweets, should exceed BO of 40

Taking 40

Mini modest:

Sold + ~12 in sweets for arcana tree (~175) + dp trash man (~19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27331154

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167285055?time=1446102000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167285055?time=1446188400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167285055?time=1446102000&compare=1446188400

175-12 +19 = ~180

Taking 180

0.9*(180-40) = ~125

-> 125 keys

============================================================================================

Sale 2:

Sold for RA fr (~115) + sweets (~7)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015051536?time=1447315200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015051536?time=1447401600 after

0.9*115+7 = ~110

-> 110 keys

============================================================================================

~~No other usable sales I can find.~~

~~it resold, but its probably best not to touch this:~~

~~http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1447142400&compare=1447228800~~

New sales that have happened:

Sale 3:

Sold for knifestorm aviator (~180) + ~3 in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911615?time=1448697600&compare=1448524800

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4358136596,30404,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4358136651,378,5

0.9*183 = ~165

-> 165 keys

============================================================================================

Sale 4:

Sold for gfetti law:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167285055?time=1448438400&compare=1448524800

0.9*180 = ~160

-> 160 keys

============================================================================================

Sale 5:

Bulk deal for misty exe:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061376237?time=1448265600&compare=1448179200

Would end up really high

============================================================================================

Sales at 110, 125, 160, 165 and something high. Going 125-165 here

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

Kinda a wide range, and it'd be logical to assume the tc was offered in sale 1 seeing as it went with another hat. 140-165 seems more reasonable to me but idk.

Hm, I can ask if really needed. In the past Ive seen most duped knifestorm modest sellers offering it around because the attention they get is limited. For an item like that, I dont think its weird if theyre offered like "Ill offer this hat if you add to yours for it"

I dont think the range is that wide, and theres pretty much 2 sales supporting both ends. I think it should be fine this way actually ;/

I don't think it's weird if it's offered but I don't think it'd be that weird if it was offered on either. I generally don't apply overpay on a 2:1 like that but it's suggester's preference I suppose.

There aren't really 2 sales supporting both ends if you're classing one as a low outlier, though.

I actually thought the 110 keys sale should be included and the range should be 110-165.

A 2:3 ratio of low end to high end is typically fine and the ratio of the range here is less than 2:3.

Before the newer sales had happened, I was already hesistant to include the front runner sale (because the front took a drop right before I updated the TC; likelihood that the seller valued it higher is pretty high) but I was asked to. I decided to go with it since I only had one sale and a second would solidify the value.

Since the newer sales have happened, it supported my initial theory that the front sale would be low here, hence I decided to exclude it from the range here, and to use it merely as a support that ~160 alone is too high.

Additional:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/567c180edea9e94d487f7765 burning lid is being repriced at the moment. Id say 82 is a bit low, but the average there matches with a current seller at 95. This'd bring the liq.lid sale within the suggested range

bought for knifestorm assassin (180, it is not 160)

someone else sold for p. fetti law (180)

see previous suggestion

FR was 150-170 19 days ago(!)

This guy really want to quickbuy this hat, but i sell him "buy skull jefe for 75 keys as weel as it is prcied in bp tf"

As you see it was sold for ~200 (sale 5)

also it was sold for 180 (p.f. law - sale 4, and ks assassin - sale 3) 2 times. I am current owner (sale 3)

Both the sales you mentioned are in the suggestion. Backpack.tf pricing accounts for the fact that sellers generally require overpay in unusuals by taking the value of its return *0.9 to factor that in. You can read more about that in the rules for making a price suggestion, or you can ask me any questions about it if you have any further questions.

I have excluded the front runner sale from the range as mentioned above. the 150-170 was heavily outdated and clearly too high, but it is likely the seller valued it higher, hence I did not use it for the range. It is supportive proof for the drop, though.

idk, but i ll sell for 190-200

p.fetti law (sale 4) 180

misty exe (sale 5) ~200

knifestorm assassin (sale 3) 180

and i sold it for burning lid + 74 k pure (see proof yourself :0) 110+74

already 3 trades 180 - 1 trade 200

p.s.

ghost is 237 priced, vivid is 225, heart is 212, eerie flame is 192–216

Lid sale backs up suggested range.

"p.s.

ghost is 237 priced, vivid is 225, heart is 212, eerie flame is 192–216"

Consider noted. Im aware of those prices, ive set or helped setting most of those myself, except for eerie, which is heavily outdated.

You have correctly assessed that higher tier effects have higher prices, and have demonstrated that eerie likely needs a drop

anyways, 3 trades for 180, 1 trade for 200.

we need to see these effects on all unusualls.

after overpay the ~180 trades are 160. The misty exe is a clear high outlier and can be used to update the exe.

hm, 2 time 120, 3 time 180 (160, why overpay? o:), 1 time exe. But, excuse me, i can be too conservative, is exe still high tier all class top hat and is misty skull higher tier top effect? :0 sorry for my english

You didn't read when foamy explained what overpay is. bp.tf prices are in pure, that means if a hat is priced at 200 keys then its priced at 200 PURE, it's usually expected to sell for 220 in UNUSUALS but again bp.tf pricing is in PURE.

But yeah you sold it according to your trade for a burning lid + 74 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27505309

So that sale is ~173 after overpay.

With the sale that Woifi provided, there are now 3 sales supporting the high-end, ~165 Keys whereas only 1 sale supporting the low-end with the other being ruled as an outlier.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27566621 - Offered Beams Outta Sight ~140 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27526480 - Duped got offered Moon Physician's Protector (122 Keys) + Sweets (~3 Keys) ~125 Keys

I think something like 160-170 Keys would be more suitable, but I'm leaving it to you.

hm, the other sale still counts as supportive towards the low end; At the old value of the front runner, it would have been ~140 after overpay, which is relatively close to the low end selected. I felt that given the other sales on the TC, the new value of the front would be on the low side

As for the outta sight offer: The suggestion on it is rather shaky since its based on a single sale with a really crude mini. I guess it could serve as supportive, but I wouldnt rule out sales because of an offer of such a hat :P

In summary, this would bring me to sales at:

~110

~125

~160

~165

~170

With the frontrunner at its old value, this'd provide a reasonable middle-value ~140. I cannot directly use that of course, but it would be more sensible to leave 110 out of the set range here, and it would "fill up" the gap between both ends. Technically I could stretch the range to 125-170, but I feel like the difference would be minimal.

The sale for the front runner happened in November 13th and the suggestion of the Front Runner got accepted on November 14th. I'm not really sure why you would use the price before since I would think it's not accurate enough to be used in this suggestion.

I would hope sale 1 to be offered as well. :/

Anyhow, I was thinking that this unusual is around ~155 Keys and a median of ~145 Keys is meh.

I feel like this is being valued a bit low, but have no solid evidence to prove that it is so oh well.

Well thats why Im not using it. The update likely makes the sale low. Point is that even before its price was updated, that sale would haev ended up significantly lower than 160. the hat not being in date means I cant use it, but it is an indication to what someone valued his hat at in a trade. the unupdated value can still be a guideline and a recent drop can be an indication as to why a sale appears to be on the low side compared to te rest

You should've used this detailed response regarding on your conclusion above, I have not understand what you've talked about until I've read this response. Although I don't agree on some of the points that you've said because somebody might just offer something that they want and ignoring the value, but overall, I think your point is agreeable.

Back to the topic:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27566621 - Sold for a SBTWC El Jefe which I guess would be around ~140-150 Keys.

Haha, if sale 1 is offered, then everything will match.

Well as I've said, I guess this shows that it's close and it's better than the normal price of this.

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