Suggestion: Morning Glory Team Captain at 300–390 keys

The grimm and the bonnett were exchanged for the harvest moon drill in some combi deal, where the same person exchanged keys for an aussie minigun as it appears.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138913274?time=1446969600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138913274?time=1447056000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138913274?time=1446969600&compare=1447056000

All prices of the non-unusual sweets added are listed as they were at the time of the sale. Overpay is applied on the max to account for it being duped

Minis:

Juju:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27169720

Sold for 50 + MW strange liq. asset

Scm sales on that asset around the time of the sale uptil now are ~30-40€ => ~16 keys

Caps at buyout of 65

Taking 65

Dragonborn:

All recent sales are bulk. No sales have happened that can be used in any way, so 35 should do here. Since its only a small portion of the trade, it should be fine

0.9*(120+65+35+29+28+27+20+20+17+16+10+8+7+7+5+5+3+2+2+2+2+1) = ~390

-> 390 keys

================================================================================================

Sale 2:

Sold + peace buddy (~13) + nnb bubble (~12) + pfetti oto mirror (~13) for searing plazma hazmat headcase (~335)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446796800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446883200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446796800&compare=1446883200

Hazmat suggestion is based on 1 sale where overpay has been accounted for.

335-13-12-13 = ~300

-> 300 keys

================================================================================================

Sale 3:

Sold for frostbite boxcar (~170) + spellbound bone dome (~90) + MG broadband (~30) + sulph hwah (~20) + p.fetti slouch (~16)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007850070?time=1446796800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007850070?time=1446883200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007850070?time=1446796800&compare=1446883200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061376237?time=1446796800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061376237?time=1446883200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061376237?time=1446883200&compare=1446796800

Mini bone:

tried to update this but it didnt really work out

Sold w/ mg broadband for CV tossle + KaW mongol

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27334055 BO 90

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087402437?time=1446624000&compare=1446710400

I cant mini the tossle really, but it should be close enough to the buyout of 90. Other tossle sales are either untrackable or they involve CSGO stuff that I cant properly appraise as I dont know what exactly went on.

Taking 90

0.9*(170+90+30+20+16) = ~300

-> 300 keys

================================================================================================

Sale 4:

I dont know:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110272840?time=1445756400&compare=1445670000

none of that should be enough here. Since Flyte is at both sides of Jad in the history, I assume it returned to him there.

================================================================================================

Sale 5:

Sold +PE hotrod (~43) for duped vivid stash (~130) + duped moon phantom (~150) + nebula HfoHA (~110)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446102000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446188400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993258470?time=1446188400&compare=1446102000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1446188400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1446274800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1446274800&compare=1446188400

Minis sale 4:

Mini stash:

Sold for scorching dragonborn (~135)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043132873?time=1443596400&compare=1444892400

Fits within the recently updated range of the stash. Considering it clean

Mini phantom:

Sold for duped burning phantom (~100 ish) +grail oblooterated (~50) + s.pro kritz (~23) + a few keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090793726?time=1446015600&compare=1446188400

Should be enough to show it has selling potential above 150, which is what the sellers are at at the moment:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27511075 3days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27388772 3weeks

HfoHA:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564e8a0cba8d881872a94ac9

Sales mentioned in the comment section point towards a range of ~100-120 in my eyes. Taking 110 here as mini should easily suffice.

110+130+150-43 = ~350

-> 350 keys

================================================================================================

There is another sale where it sold + duped beams lucha for a PE TC, which would support this drop.

And yea. PE TC. Thats what I had been working on.

Sales here are ~300, ~300, ~350 and ~390 after all updates. I feel like the range here is needed. Most recent sale was the 390 one. At least one of the 300 sales happened fast. 300-390 brings me to an average that makes sense in relation to DaD

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

Well I hope I can sell my beams lucha somewhat soon so you can use it as mini. I checked it and it simply has no sales besides bulk sales for god tiers (I guess the only okish one was lucha added on top of an ooze mohawk for something high which would come out at 150-200 keys or something like that but yeah).

yeah the kiss king sale, where it should account for nearly 40% of the total sale which may be decent enough for a mini. I have these listed in my PE TC draft:

Well that was anticlimactic. I cant really find sales on the lucha:

- Bulk burning kiss king

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159445277?time=1446102000&compare=1446188400

- Bulk pan

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961216583?time=1445756400&compare=1445670000

- I dont know, Tony probably sold it for cash or sold the keys afterwards. Cant find the transaction in his trust rating (unless Im blind)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063345374?time=1445065200&compare=1444892400

- This is probably Flyte moving it to Jad

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1443596400&compare=1444028400

Yeah exactly. Nice work. Anyways I will keep you updated if I get lucky in the next days.^^

Awesome, thanks! I may already post the TC suggestion either later today or tomorrow after ive finished other minis as I have another sale that should sort-of back up this value there.