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countering: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/565b4d3aba8d881d75a94de6
year old price
Sales:
Blizz Juju+4 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121302097?time=1447228800 (November 11th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121302097?time=1447315200 (November 12th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121302097?time=1447228800&compare=1447315200
23*0.9=21+4=25
Added ~6 keys in sweets for a Lvl 1 Max's
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033396801?time=1446537600 (November 3rd)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033396801?time=1446624000 (November 4th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033396801?time=1446537600&compare=1446624000
28.5*0.9=26
Miami Brain Slug
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448438400 (November 25th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448524800 (November 26th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448524800&compare=1448438400
old price, but probably around 20-25
Added ~6 keys in sweets for a Orb Fire Noble
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448006400 (November 20th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448092800 (November 21st)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127309663?time=1448006400&compare=1448092800
old price again, but would still be 20-25
Alex's Sales:
Sold with 4 Keys for a Terror-Watt Virtual Reality Headset:
Seller's Backpack Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121302097?time=1448179200
Seller's Backpack After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121302097?time=1448265600
Calculations: (~34) * .9 = 30.6 - 4 = 26.6, rounding to 27 Keys
Sold for a Cloud 9 Glengarry Bonnet:
Seller's Backpack Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127266172?time=1448697600
Seller's Backpack After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127266172?time=1448784000
Calculations: (~35) * .9 = 31.5 Keys. Seller had a Buyout of 30 Keys, so Rounding this to 30 Keys
bonnet is being priced using the festivizer and can update VRH, as old price is off
You need a mini for the Slug and the Noble; estimation doesn't cut it if you're using it as proof. Also, there wasn't any keys involved in the Max trade. Many people consider Max Heads to be pure. Considering there is multiple valid sales above 26 keys, this range seems to be inaccurate. Also, there is a seller at 28 Keys: http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Industrial%20Festivizer/Tradable/Craftable/6
I'm using the noble and slug as supporting evidence, I don't need to provide proof if I'm not using them to establish a range. I took out the keys in the max's calculations, and it's standard to apply overpay on level 1 or 7 max's. The seller at 28 actually counters your own suggestion.
And you're just overlooking two valid sales and a seller that don't fit your range? Seems like you're cherry-picking evidence for the range. Also, you don't have any proof that your "supporting sales" even support the range you're trying to make.