"Yea Id like to order one large Team Captain with extra Energy please"

"Green energy. No no no no, Purple energy, and duplicates on half"

As per request a while ago; sorry it took so long. I had a lot of other stuff I wanted/was asked to update

The sales

Sale 1:

QSed for 300 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27507212

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961216583?time=1448697600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961216583?time=1448784000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961216583?time=1448697600&compare=1448784000

Sale 2:

Involved in a bulkdeal for an AWP | Dragonlore (Factory New)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1448006400&compare=1448179200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/730,4301879812,9,4

====================================================================================================

Sale 3:

Sold for phantasm KE (~235) + Lantern TC (~145)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1447488000&compare=1447574400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1447401600&compare=1447574400

0.9*(235+145) = ~350

-> 350 keys

Sale 4:

Bulk PE pullover

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819665?time=1444546800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819665?time=1448524800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819665?time=1448524800&compare=1444546800

====================================================================================================

Sale 5:

Sold for MG TC (~345) + duped beams lucha (~175)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1442127600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1442646000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1442127600&compare=1442646000

Well that was anticlimactic. I cant really find sales on the lucha:

- Bulk burning kiss king

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159445277?time=1446102000&compare=1446188400

- Bulk pan

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961216583?time=1445756400&compare=1445670000

- I dont know, Tony probably sold it for cash or sold the keys afterwards. Cant find the transaction in his trust rating (unless Im blind)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063345374?time=1445065200&compare=1444892400

- This is probably Flyte moving it to Jad

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1443596400&compare=1444028400

Gonna go with the kiss king sale

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159445277?time=1446102000&compare=1446188400

463-265-22 = ~175

Taking 175

0.9*(345+175) = ~470

-> 470

Sale 6:

Sold for blizz banana + sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1443596400&compare=1444028400

What do people see in that hat, really. Either way, it would put the TC too low or the banana too high. See banana suggestion

====================================================================================================

Sale 7:

Sold for AF kabuto (~150) + duped GE pusher (~125) + scorching frenchmans (~60)+ scorching gatsby (~50) + bubbling HKC (~40) + S.pro ks machina (~15) + pro v.luger (~8) + Cool pro ks black dahlia (FT)(~65) + hot pro ks lightning (MW) (~50)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027768238?time=1445324400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027768238?time=1445410800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027768238?time=1445324400&compare=1445410800

Outpost histories show that all of these were involved.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1445324400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1445410800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1445324400&compare=1445410800

Minis sale 7

Mini pistol:

Cant really mini. Similar tiers seem to sell relatively low. this pistol has been offered a bdb nunhood (~65) though, so Ill take that.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27324997

nun = clean: http://backpack.tf/item/2503814382

Mini lightning

Lightningrod sells ~100€ on scm => ~45. Rounding up to 50 to add the pro ks value

Mini duped pusher:

- Sold for strange VHP HfoHA, lol

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090560650?time=1444892400&compare=1444719600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163?time=1444892400&compare=1444806000

Even though its strange, that seems like a poor deal

- Sold for duped knifestorm tyro (~90)+ hot masked mender (FT) (~30)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809?time=1443855600&compare=1443942000

the mender literally has sales all over the place on the scm, between 18€ and 180€. avg of ~30 keys based on other sales (~79€ and ~64€)

~120

Knifestorm tyro:

Avg: ~90

- Sold for 100 pure + GE hwah (~30)

http://backpack.tf/id/sillyhusky?time=1444892400&compare=1444978800

~130

Averaging to ~125

0.9*(150+125+60+50+40+15+7+65+50) = ~510

-> 510 keys

Sale 8:

Credits to Woifi and Magenta for this sale

http://puu.sh/lHOvF/e9ef1b1b78.png

Sold for scorching rotation + ghosts neckwear (~230) + bonzo hetman (~29) + pro aussie minigun (~30) + aussie knife (~23)

Ongoing commotion about the scorching rotation would put it at either 340 or 405

In case its 340: 0.9*(340+230+29+30+23) = ~590

Inc ase its 405: 0.9*(405+230+29+30+23) = ~645

-> 590/645 keys

====================================================================================================

Okay so, this leaves me at the following sales:

~300 [QS]

~350

~470

~510 [D]

~590/645

Not putting an actual value on the banana sale as it is a clear outlier in both situations.

- 300 is a QS, so disregarding that.

Going to exclude high and low end as they are both significantly higher/lower than the mid-value. Using all four sales would give me roughly the same average. High end is unclear anyway due to the scorching rotation issue.

470-510 looks like a fair/decent range for this

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3