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Only recent valid sale:
Sold for a TW Heer's + Bubbling Robin + Orb Low Profile
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225221200?time=1447833600&compare=1448006400
(36 + 11 + 27) X 0.9 = 67
Mini on the Heer's:
Sold alongside ~4 keys' sweets for a Smoking TC
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153935427?time=1448870400&compare=1448956800
40 - 4 = 36
Mini on the Robin:
Sold for 11 pure
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052542442?time=1446969600&compare=1447056000
Mini on the Low Profile:
Sold for a pro aussie box (SCM and sellers at 27)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031660917?time=1444201200&compare=1444806000
You missed a sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27321988
paid a circling heart brainiac + strange pan on the sandvich
also this sale (67) might be an outlier considering how other effects are and what the duped one sold for.
I agree, I would use the sammy cap to price this intsead since there is a better sale available (yours) on the sammy.