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Sale #1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27436371 B/o 12 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120146240?time=1448006400&compare=1448092800
Sold for about 11 keys + 2 keys in sweets.
13 capped at 12
Sale #2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177005690?time=1448956800&compare=1449043200
Sold for a Miami Nights Base Metal Billycock, added 1 in ref.
12 - 1 = 11 keys
PRICE RANGE: 11 - 12 Keys
You're not applying overpay to sale 2?
He added 1 key not to mention no trade on outpost tf, he may been the one who offered the hat, which mods says it's fine.
Fair enough, upvote in that case :)