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Ugh this was painful
Sale 1 OUTLIER
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27147320 Sold for Searing Dixie + 5 keys + 4 in sweets
B/O for Bone was 21
B/O for Dixie was 18
X = 5 + 4*0.9 + 17.5*0.9
X = 24
X = 21 (B/O)
Dixie http://backpack.tf/item/209797246
Bone http://backpack.tf/item/3793778015
Mini for Dixie
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56695ab3dea9e9160b7f7879 17.5 keys, using 17.5
Sale 2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144453759?time=1443510000&compare=1443337200 Sold for Logo Mountain Cap, seems very low
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27545016 Sold with 2 keys of sweets for Stormy Baker
B/O for the set was 20
B/O for Baker was 20
Presumed Bone was offered
X + 2 = 18.5
X = 17
Baker http://backpack.tf/item/3190621432
Bone http://backpack.tf/item/2523926213
Mini for Baker
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5669ea63b98d888a5ee94c68 18.5 keys, using 18.5
Sale 4
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090952225?time=1449785952&compare=1449561600 Sold with sweets for DBD Trib, best used to update Trib
Sale 5
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088119769?time=1448784000&compare=1448870400 Sale of like ~15 keys, low
Sale 6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27309606 Sold for 16 keys
B/O for Bone was 16
X = 16
Keys https://gyazo.com/1b7741b82749c09c1e720a930040b448 http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071231427?time=1446274800&compare=1445929200
Bone http://backpack.tf/item/2523926213
Sale 7
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27008525 Sold for Hot FT Woodsy Widowmaker
B/O for SMG was 25
B/O for Bone was 22
X = 18.5*0.9
X = 17
SMG http://backpack.tf/item/3935654493
Bone http://backpack.tf/item/2407720802
Mini for Widow
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Woodsy%20Widowmaker%20SMG%20%28Field-Tested%29 Sold for 48.13 on Sep 20th
48.13 + 48.13/1.15 = 89.98
89.98/2 = 44.99
Keys were $2.43 at time of sale
44.99/2.43 = 18.5 keys
That looks like a painful amount of evidence.
I've seen skins in trades before but I definitely wouldn't tackle them.
Upvote.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56695a2db98d88705ee94c1f Son, you have no idea how painful suggestions can be in terms of amount of evidence