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Classifieds :
https://gyazo.com/5ecfee2709f690d2b0d5fa524284feb8 (gif)
1 at 3 ref | 2 at 3,33 ref (1 unsold for 2 days)
Unsolds :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27560567 - 4 ref (4 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27543526 - 4 ref (1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27536709 - 4 ref (1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27443201 - 4 ref (3 weeks)
Sale :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27369799 - 4 ref (sold on SCM? ; outlier, check unsolds)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984612128?time=1449734400&compare=1449820800
Conclusion :
SCM supports a drop.