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Hopefully able to bump up the high end.
My sale:
http://backpack.tf/item/1842508111
I offered, no overpay.
http://prntscr.com/9dwv1v
Lvl 21 max (26 tf2) + FN Slaughter Butterfly (119 tf2) + ST M4 Bullet Rain (19 tf2)
Valuing keys @ 10:11
I added 9 keys.
164 - 9 = 155 keys
___________________________
140 key suggestion:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/566d7683dea9e97f1b7f76c9
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/%E2%98%85%20Butterfly%20Knife%20%7C%20Slaughter%20%28Factory%20New%29
FYI you are overvaluing the BFK. It's the average scm sales value in a week divided by average tf2 key price.
Also, you did not specify the wear on the Bullet rain.
You need to say where did you get the value of each CS:GO item from. If it's from SCM you need to take in account taxes.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27515700 - sold for these things ~140 without overpay
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27609230 - buyer had a b/o of 140 and sold for the 4 CS items here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27620912 - roughly ~100 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27677317 - b/o 150
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27661732 - b/o 140
And regarding your sale, not sure where the butterfly value is coming from. I'm seeing them at 106 keys on SCM and that's before tax. You'll need a mini if you're not going with scm prices. It looks like your sale is around 140 too. Current price should be fine.