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More sales, redoing the range also.
Sale 1: Sold for a demonflame pyromancer's - I legit cant find a recent sale, either outdated, bought from a scammer unboxed, or in a collector's backpack, thus doing double overpay. = 333*0.8 = ~266, seems like a definite outlier seeing as it doesnt have a proper mini and is a lot higher than the others
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091301355?time=1449907200
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091301355?time=1449993600
Sale 2: Sold for an eerie orbiting fire bomber + a blizzard hive minder = 135 + 14 = 149 (*0.9) = ~134 rounding to 135
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115471878?time=1449648000
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115471878?time=1449993600
Sale 3: Sold for FT Cool Brick House Minigun and FT Isotope Lightning Rod Shotgun
https://imgur.com/NRiGDVa
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091301355?time=1449302400
65+28 = 93
93*0.9 = ~84 = rounding to 85
Shotgun mini: http://imgur.com/qC57yjr - Up for ~3 months
Minigun mini: 2 b/os at 27-28
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27529466
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27536625
Bomber mini: Sold for miami nights crown = 150
http://backpack.tf/item/1249734603
http://backpack.tf/item/3756714974
266 is waaay too high, 85 is waaay to low, thus picking the median sale at 135
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27575859 - young, currently listed @ 400 keys... i'd say that the 85 is too low. tough call with sales all over the map! Prolly staying neutral for now and gonna watch offers on that OP listing over the next while. (EDIT: Can you explain the 135 for the eerie bomber in your sale 2 calc? Crown is just out-dated at 150... maybe i'm tired but wouldn't it be 150+14=165x.9=148.5 ? )
Post if any new info :)
Why is 266 too high? When checking the other effects' price, that seems totally legit on the contrary.
Because
1. Its a really outdated price with recent sales I can find
2. There are 2 other sales far closer to each other
3. Orbiting fire is a low tier effect
Cloud 9 is pretty low when going to the effect list, a bit higher than orbiting fire, but not that much, and for this hat, it ispriced 343 keys. You can't assume something is an outlier because of the effect, when the comparison to the others actually suggests it is indeed possible.
Also, the second sale is a bit less than twice as much as the third. The first is a bit less than twice as much as the second. Basically, there's not one that is closer to another. I might be wrong on that one but I guess it's more relevant to go by percentage rather than just the gap amount.
As for sales, there is an ultra recent one: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141057220?time=1449734400&compare=1449993600 You might want to look into that further by adding one of the guys, since histories don't match. Or maybe that's the one you mentionned with "scammer", but I don't see a scammer anywhere. :P
It's really weird: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27550820
His highest offer "Skill gotten Gains Burchester+FN Cool Flash Fryer+G. Fetti Hazmat+Eerie Bomber ~370ish?" is this, then he sells it to the unexperienced guy with the mancers mask and the guy who made the quoted offer above just pays the bomber + hive instead of all the other stuff?
No matter what exactly happened here, this seems super low, he would have been willing to pay way more as the offer shows, so this is most likely an outlier.
Seems ultra fishy indeed. But don't all these offers completely counter the 135 keys price? I see a clean burning chapeau offer, the one you mentionned, abduction phononaut.. The outlier I see here is 135.
Yeah I definitely agree with that. Offers indicate that it's an outlier as well, on top of the sale being unclear/fishy.
In¢ognito (KSG)™ CS:GO backpack:
Before: http://csgo.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091301355?time=1449648000
After: http://csgo.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091301355?time=1450080000
Was the knife added as well?
Also, the current owner of the Cardbeard has some interesting recent messages on his Steam profile from In¢ognito, the previous owner:
https://steamcommunity.com/id/DissyQ
Nice catch as well. Yeah things don't add up 100%.
Im gonna redo the range