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Sold for 35 keys + 9.5 keys sweets. Using Overpay for the 9.5, that makes 43.5 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063481318?time=1449475200&compare=1449388800
Sold for 40 keys : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041401847?time=1447920000&compare=1448006400
Sold for Purple Energy Hot Rod (43) + 8.2 keys sweets. Using Overpay, that makes 46 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080312295?time=1445756400&compare=1445929200
The "sweets" in sale 2 was an australium, therefore overpay is not required. Though it is now an outlier - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27474562
Selling and sales are different. I can't used an asking price as a value.
For instance, someone asking 250 keys for a Clean Cloudy Moon Modest (199). I can't use this selling price as proof (would be silly), all unusual prices would go up everytime the sellers change his prices and ask for more.
As long as there is no actual sale, i can't use that link :/.
And again, with ID you can see which items coming from the buyers in all this (paste "4334117471" in Near ID).
I'm saying that it's an outlier because there is an unsold at lower than this (the link I provided)