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Only recent valid sales:
Sold for an MG Mohawk
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975112294?time=1444806000&compare=1445929200
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/567847b7dea9e9163c7f765c
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Unusable sales:
Sale 1:
Sold for ..? (can't seem to trace anything here, OP doesn't show anything either)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095224549?time=1445583600&compare=1446361200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206?time=1446361200&compare=1446274800
I'm inclined to say MG HKC looking at this:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206?time=1446361200&compare=1446274800
However, here it looks like Burning G. Ushanka + Burning Swagman's + GE Lucha:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095224549?time=1445583600&compare=1446361200
Normally in this case you could come to the conclusion that the Ushanka + Swagman's + Lucha sold for the HKC which sold for the Bomber, it just didn't get picked up quick enough and skipped the middle part. However, the Swagman's appears to go somewhere else entirely... so that's odd.
However, OP histories match. I'm pretty confident it's a 1:1 now:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4270531046,30177,5 (HKC)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4249361488,671,5 (Bomber)
Would that not be an outlier anyway though?
Well, what makes you think it's an outlier? The sales are a pretty decent amount apart. You can't just call one an outlier without a reason in this case, because 220 might be low, but 360 might be high :P
Typically in a case like that I think about their previous price(s)