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Needs a drop.
[proof below]
Sellers at 4.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27624515
Unsolds at 5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27614085 - 2 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27609924 - 4 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27603952 - 5 days (x2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27599005 - 6 days (4.88?)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Neptune%27s+Nightmare&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1
1x 4.33
2x 4.66
SCM -> ~4.11 (counting ref as $0.13)
4.66 flat because SCM and classifieds support lower-end range. Besides, enough unsolds at 5.00 ref so we clearly see that 5.00 ref is not a commonly trading point.