Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27576863 4 refined (14 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27617200 4.66 refined (3 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27609458 4.66 refined (never bumped, 5 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27568242 4.66 refined (1 reclaimed discount | 17 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27616313 5 refined (2 days unbumped, 3 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27628388 5 refined (new today)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27614835 backpack.tf price (3 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27578216 backpack.tf price (14 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27574889 backpack.tf price (15 days old, sold)

Classifieds - http://i.imgur.com/GvHbjFh.png

• 2 for 4.66 refined, 1 for 4.88 refined, 8 for 5 refined

*scrapTF hat bots - http://i.imgur.com/dyo1LVu.gif

60 out of a possible 90 Area 451s in-stock at 4.66 refined

*scrapTF is not considered valid evidence as bots are used for convenience and thus should not be evaluated to the same extent as regular buyer/sellers when assessing the value of an item in a price suggestion. However, as important supporting evidence, it is important to mention the amount in stock in the bots as each of the 9 bots can hold a maximum of 10 copies (to my knowledge), and they are currently ~67% full.

Conclusion: I believe there are enough sellers at 4.66 refined to substantiate a drop to 4.66 refined flat instead of a range of 4.66-5 refined.