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Might 21 be an outlier?
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27398127 Sold for 17 keys
B/O for Cap was 17
X = 17
Keys http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077875601?time=1449043200&compare=1449216000
Cap http://backpack.tf/item/2276741597
Sale 2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156473239?time=1446969600&compare=1447228800 Sold for 8 keys, outlier
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27357667 Sold with a key of sweets for GE Handle
B/O for Handle was 22
X + 1 = 22
X = 21
Handle http://backpack.tf/item/212266379
Cap http://backpack.tf/item/2276741597
Trade http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067795713?time=1446796800&compare=1446883200
Mini for Handle
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/568b8efdba8d88a635a94bf2 Would be 23.5 keys, but trade above has a B/O of 22, using 22
Sale 4
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064878544?time=1446451200&compare=1446796800 Bulk for Pro KS Aussie MediGun
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26938617 30 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27607317 17 keys
seller for 17 never bumped. 21 seems fine for the range.