Resuggesting

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27638662 - 40 Keys - 9 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27656703 - 40 Keys - 5 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27557954 - 38 Keys - x Days | Pretty sure he lowered his price recently but not sure when

Classifieds:

http://i.imgur.com/EoC4U0G.png

x1 38 Keys

x1 40 Keys

x1 50 Keys

I'd check when they were listed but I think the new design broke that function.

Conclusion:

2 Unsolds at 40 Keys and a seller below to support the drop. SCM supports this value as well. As the 38 Key seller isn't very clear, taking a more conservative drop to a flat range of 40 Keys as it is the most common trading point.