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My suggesting is rusty but 14 is stupid.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27255548
Guy offered flies noble for gfetti cap, cap is outdated, but there's a one on outpost selling for 17 keys, so we can assume the price hasn't changed too much, accounting for overpay since the noble was offered, around 18.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27660818#latest
Sold for 18 pure, ez
The 15 key sale is still valid.
Also if there's a seller for the Gfetti Cap at 17, why not use 17?
You don't need to calculate overpay anymore so it doesn't matter who offered.
the connoisseurs sale is actually too old (3m old), so incidentally 18 is fine
As for the other sale, I think the pure sale here should be given precedence over that, since it sold without a bump and was capped at the buyout nonetheless
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27509404 tfw he got offered TaW KE and didnt take it
item value of the sale was ~18. 18 flat should be fine here
Just an fyi; it's best not to use sales older than 2 months+ (not that it's against the rules, just a recommendation).
Well that sale isn't older than 2 months, but now that I looked into it, it's actually a sale at 18+ but the buyout capped it at 15.
I know, I wasn't referring to that sale. I was just saying ;p.