It is not really much proof, just listing some buyorders (it would be better if you have some solds [solds are the best proof]) at 11,66 ref, but since there are a lot sellers at outpost.tf at 1 key and the Strange Festive Gloves of Running Urgently

are sold for about 2,30$ at the community market (thats nearly a key), an update is necessary.

You have my upvote!

Yeah, none on outpost below 17 ref (though that one is killstreak): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27755122

This is probably conservative based on SCM, buy orders at $1.49 are about 11 ref, and majority of sales well above that.