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"Burst of delight"
Few new sales, slight adjustment to the range
The sales
New sales
New sale 1:
Sold for duped P.fetti shaman (?)
http://backpack.tf/id/whythehellareyoulookingatthisurl?time=1453449600 before
http://backpack.tf/id/whythehellareyoulookingatthisurl?time=1453536000 after
http://backpack.tf/id/whythehellareyoulookingatthisurl?time=1453449600&compare=1453536000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191629070?time=1453536000&compare=1453449600
Not much on the shaman other than a 2:1 for a MG DCO
New sale 2:
Sold for duped Cmoon ywn (~110) + duped Cmoon phantom (~140)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191629070?time=1453536000 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191629070?time=1453622400 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191629070?time=1453536000&compare=1453622400
Creds to Kevin for the minis here, extracted from the comment section on my prev. suggestion:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56a15badb98d88a201e94ada#comment-56a720f8dea9e94f2e08c487
Mini ywn:
Sold for stormy 13th trophy ~110
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971174166?time=1451203200 (December 27th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971174166?time=1451376000 (December 29th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971174166?time=1451376000&compare=1451203200
Other sale is bulk
Moon phantom:
Ghosts fff + hearts connoiss + c9 wet (~160 ish based on current sellers/offers)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086605050?time=1453449600&compare=1453363200
Scorch belgian (~120 based on lowest seller)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118554509?time=1449907200&compare=1450252800
Harvest lucha ~132
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118554509?time=1449475200&compare=1449907200
avg ~140
140+110 = ~250. probably on the low side because theyre dupes, at clean value they fit the range
New sale 3:
Sold for duped moon menco (~300)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086605050?time=1453622400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086605050?time=1453708800 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086605050?time=1453622400&compare=1453708800
-> 300 keys
===================================================================================================
From the previous suggestion:
Sale 1:
Sold for gifted scorching stahl + C.S. pro vaccinator
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1446274800&compare=1446361200
Using that as mini on the stahl since I need it there.
Note that gift tags are currently removable, but they were not at the time the sale happened. Ive read somewhere that there had been a buyout of 260 on the stahl somewhere at some point, but I cant find that back. With this sale in mind, Id say this is the most recent, most proper mini available on the stahl. However, with another sale here in mind (based on the showstopper chester which Im gonna do) this would cap at a buyout, making this a rather high mini on it.
========================================================================================================
Sale 2:
Sold for scorching waxy (~154) + DP antlers (~84) + DP KE (~63) + DP bonk (~26) + DP sensei (~20) + Pro ks scatter (nonstrange) (~5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27352597
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1447056000 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1447315200 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1447315200&compare=1447056000
The bonk and sensei are 4months old and thus technically outdated, but they were in-date at the time of the sale and their change in value will be neglectible compared to the rest of the sale anyway
154+84+63+26+20 +5 = ~352, rounding to 350
-> 350 keys
========================================================================================================
Sale 3:
Sold for GE vive + duped MG wraith + duped dbd menco + duped c9 splitter
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27429272 BO 350
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047263033?time=1448179200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047263033?time=1448265600 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047263033?time=1448265600&compare=1448179200
GE vive is likely overpriced and the duped hats are likely a bunch lower, but this should comfortably cap at 350
-> 350 keys
========================================================================================================
Sale 4:
Sold for Demonflame cold killer + gifted heards mancer + probably something else but its near impossible to find out due to the current history state
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27509913 had BO of 500
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060726539?time=1450166400&compare=1450252800
http://backpack.tf/id/dedandrei?time=1450166400&compare=1450252800
I can only directly match the CK and the mancer, which would put this at ~250. Outpost histories are kinda unreliable here since peachie seems to be missing in a lot of them. The yellow belt in the sellers bp and the rack in the buyers bp share The One as owner at some point, but cant link them with 100% certainty. so ye, idk. I assume something was added that was then exchanged for the myb, but it may also have been delayed due to escrow. I dunno man.
========================================================================================================
Sale 5:
Sold for duped GE mining light (~110) + phosphorus muffs (~138) + beams escorter (~50) + DP phantom (~27) + mallard pomade (~?)+ dbd hazmatten(~35) + aussie blutsauger (~10)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045955679?time=1450425600&compare=1450512000
http://backpack.tf/id/dedandrei?time=1450425600&compare=1450512000
Mini hazmat:
Not much viable on this thing:
Sold for duped frostbite slouch
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27595779 BO 40
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059807821?time=1451462400&compare=1450598400
other sales are:
no clue
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1451289600&compare=1451203200
Buyer doesnt help either
I dunno
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964721029?time=1451376000&compare=1452153600
Looks like bulk for GE pullover
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997600533?time=1451721600&compare=1452067200
So slouch sale it is.
its outdated and stuff and probably a tad below the current buyout of 35.
Taking 35
Theres nothing on the pomade (no sales at all) and all buyouts were above current.
The mining sold + a PE mining light (at least over 71) for ~180 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27427747
Would support ~110 as value, but its kinda inconcrete because the PE value isnt too straightforward; probably not far off though
since I cant get anything concrete on the pomade, I cant really evaluate this sale. its ~360 + the pomade; evidently higher than 350
========================================================================================================
Old sales to back up the range value:
QSed for 420 paypal ~227
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27274955
Sold in 3 days
Sold for scorching uberstern + beams lucky + S.chester
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27267843
Quite sure the uberstern is currently overvalued, but it makes for a decently high value. The guy that paid the stern and shot is the one that QSed it for the paypal, giving an idea of what he expected in pure. based on that, its probably best to exclude both sales (especially since theyre too old now).
========================================================================================================
All in all we have sales at:
~227 QS, paypal, too old
~250 in dupes
~250+? not sure about this sale
~300 in dupes
~350
~350 (BO cap)
~400 ish (uberstern+luckyshot)
~400+ ish (No mini available on the pomade)
uberstern + lucky is likely above the 350s; realisticly the scorching stahl is a bit below the 350s.
So:
- Excluding 227 on account of it being a QS
- Excluding the 250 and ~400 sales because either the value or the sale is unclear
- Excluding the uberstern and stahl sale because they're old, difficult to properly appraise, and probably give a mean pretty close to 350.
To revise the above:
with the new sales, I can remove the QS, the 2 sales at 250 and the 2 sales at ~400 and go with the mid-values.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Additional:
Offers here seem to be on the low side. The person that bought it for ~350 in hats was interested in this one as well. The seller here asked him far more in hats though, but it indicates he could have sold it for ~350 as well.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27360609
Offers and counteroffers generally indicate hes actually okay with ~350
- Got offered burning sole, asked for 100 extra (would be ~370). Sole is outdated but offers here back up at least ~250:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27565868
- Got offered FacNew ST point disarray (~50) + Cmoon ballcap (~140, but duped), and was okay with the disarray and scorching specs (~325 based on seller) (~375 tops for the total)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offers, counteroffers and sales (and new sales) considered, 300-350 seems best here
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy ;3
That is the longest suggestion I've ever seen
They can always be longer :P
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56490c17ba8d88495ca94ad4
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/565778d5ba8d88f376a9510b
I say ;D
Pantastic