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Resuggesting.
Classifieds: http://i.imgur.com/5YZpBtD.png
1x 37
1x "38" (same person is selling on Outpost for 37)
1x 38
1x 40
1x 50
Outpost
Sellers for 37 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27873950
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27855059
Unsolds above 37:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27827781 (38 keys, 1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27656703 (40 keys, 1 month)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27807378 (40 keys, 2 weeks)
No valid sellers on Bazaar
No valid sellers on trade.tf
No valid sellers on TF2TP
i agree with your logic that the unsolds at 40 for so long outweight any sales over that. upvoting this one
Update:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27827781 Lowered price to 37