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~125 keys
13th
Unusual Honcho's Headgear Stormy 13th Hour
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"Guessin' theres a bad storm coming"


Guess Ill have to counter then

Credits to everyone here for their imput: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56cafe6eb98d88ff52dcea66

I wasnt going to counter since the update was being done with a dupe, but then I realized there's no clean stormy 13th honchos, so it should be fine updating it with a dupe


The sales


Sale 1:


Sold + stormy tree and mallard lid for a cool pro ks current event (well-worn) - February 21st

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27730768 BO 110

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1455955200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1456041600 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738/#!/compare/1455955200/1456041600


its hard to mini the current event, most of its sales were before it became pro ks and went quite fast:

dbd tipped lid ~100

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998/#!/compare/1454140800/1454227200


+100 in hats and stuff for peace BoA?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060522352/#!/compare/1455868800/1456041600

not sure bout that one


frostbite jefe ~120

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241/#!/compare/1455868800/1455955200

most of the keys arent related according to itemIDs and they dont match history-wise either


Ive seen similar scatters sell for 150-200 previously; for the sake of argument Im going to cap this at 110


-> 110 keys


=========================================================================================================


Sale 2:


Sold in a complex sale:

Honcho + KS nano (~60) + MM liq.lid (~43) for duped beams sole mate (~120) + PE phantom (~63) + dp ketche (~14) + duped beams sultan (~30)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27654671 BO 120

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1452412800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1452499200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738/#!/compare/1452412800/1452499200


Mini duped sole mate:

Sold for 120:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096389539/#!/compare/1453708800/1453795200

Confirmed on the other suggsetion by magicguy


The ketche and sultan are probably lower realisticly speaking, but eh, the sweets should roughly tie, and this should be close to or over his BO of 120


-> 120 keys


=========================================================================================================


Sale 3:


Sold + S.ks degreaser (~2) for Pshadows juju (~90) + mystery neptunes (~60) - December 11th

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27371432

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043867984?time=1449216000&compare=1449820800

sales from the neptunes and juju suggestion are both kinda old, but both are full pure, so Im going to include this


90+60-2 = ~148, rounding 150


-> 150 keys


=========================================================================================================


150 is probably on the high side, but eh, its close enough to the other two sales to be included.


110-150 will work here


Constructive criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3

    I created a new one, with the thirs sale...its 120-150

    Another sale for misty jefe and 14 keys in sweets

      Those sweets are significantly less than 14, but that levels with the fact that with the appropriate sweets value, that sale is closer to 120 instead of the 130 you listed it as.


      Youre still ignoring the scatter sale/buyout without any reason; your sale fits the suggested range here (or honestly only further confirms 150 is on the high side here).


      If this should be changed, it should be 110-120 or 110-125, depending on what you round the jefe sale to, with the 150 as an outlier. But conservatively, this should still work.