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"Guessin' theres a bad storm coming"
Guess Ill have to counter then
Credits to everyone here for their imput: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56cafe6eb98d88ff52dcea66
I wasnt going to counter since the update was being done with a dupe, but then I realized there's no clean stormy 13th honchos, so it should be fine updating it with a dupe
The sales
Sale 1:
Sold + stormy tree and mallard lid for a cool pro ks current event (well-worn) - February 21st
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27730768 BO 110
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1455955200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1456041600 after
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738/#!/compare/1455955200/1456041600
its hard to mini the current event, most of its sales were before it became pro ks and went quite fast:
dbd tipped lid ~100
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998/#!/compare/1454140800/1454227200
+100 in hats and stuff for peace BoA?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060522352/#!/compare/1455868800/1456041600
not sure bout that one
frostbite jefe ~120
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241/#!/compare/1455868800/1455955200
most of the keys arent related according to itemIDs and they dont match history-wise either
Ive seen similar scatters sell for 150-200 previously; for the sake of argument Im going to cap this at 110
-> 110 keys
=========================================================================================================
Sale 2:
Sold in a complex sale:
Honcho + KS nano (~60) + MM liq.lid (~43) for duped beams sole mate (~120) + PE phantom (~63) + dp ketche (~14) + duped beams sultan (~30)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27654671 BO 120
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1452412800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738?time=1452499200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117512738/#!/compare/1452412800/1452499200
Mini duped sole mate:
Sold for 120:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096389539/#!/compare/1453708800/1453795200
Confirmed on the other suggsetion by magicguy
The ketche and sultan are probably lower realisticly speaking, but eh, the sweets should roughly tie, and this should be close to or over his BO of 120
-> 120 keys
=========================================================================================================
Sale 3:
Sold + S.ks degreaser (~2) for Pshadows juju (~90) + mystery neptunes (~60) - December 11th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27371432
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043867984?time=1449216000&compare=1449820800
sales from the neptunes and juju suggestion are both kinda old, but both are full pure, so Im going to include this
90+60-2 = ~148, rounding 150
-> 150 keys
=========================================================================================================
150 is probably on the high side, but eh, its close enough to the other two sales to be included.
110-150 will work here
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3
I created a new one, with the thirs sale...its 120-150
Another sale for misty jefe and 14 keys in sweets
Those sweets are significantly less than 14, but that levels with the fact that with the appropriate sweets value, that sale is closer to 120 instead of the 130 you listed it as.
Youre still ignoring the scatter sale/buyout without any reason; your sale fits the suggested range here (or honestly only further confirms 150 is on the high side here).
If this should be changed, it should be 110-120 or 110-125, depending on what you round the jefe sale to, with the 150 as an outlier. But conservatively, this should still work.