When did the hype for the cotton head start? Because if this trade was before the hype then its accurate but afterwards the cotton head is being severely underpriced. Just a thought.

The toy soldier is going to be a bit lower (see comments on Petitcoeurs topper suggestion), that sale is going to end up really low here.

Im really uncomfortable pricing this based on that cotton sale, since it would be updating with an outdated hat. If there was nothing on the cotton when you suggested, it will probably remain undoable since all of the more recent sales on the cotton will be "post-hype" and therefore significantly higher.

That would leave you here with a sale that is likely an outlier and a sale that shouldnt really be used.

There is another sale that could be used here:

Sold for DaD stove pipe

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101261057/#!/compare/1453968000/1454054400

DaD stove (can be suggested by itself with this):

Sold for australium rocketlauncher ~56

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105733892/#!/compare/1455955200/1456214400

~56

Sold for harvest glengarry (~46) + 4 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105733892/#!/compare/1453968000/1454832000

Glengarry has a seller that sells two of them for 46 and 49. Technically you can take either, but for this I've picked 46 since it rounds best.

50-56 could work for that, which could make 53 flat work here, a bit more conservative