Outpost:

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27908499 [killstreak] 2 keys and 6.66 refined (~2.35 keys) [1 day old]

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27908186 2 keys and 8 refined (~2.4 keys) [2 days old] (2 for sale)

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27717318 [killstreak] 2.4 keys [45 days old] (potential price change or poorly bumped)

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27911276 2.5 keys [1 day old]

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27898233 2 keys and 9.77 refined (~2.5 keys) [4 days old]

• http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27801728 2.5 keys [27 days old] (appears poorly bumped)

backpack.tf classifieds:

- http://i.imgur.com/3wn5Hb4.png

• One for 2 keys (outlier)

• Four for ~2.35 keys (2 of them are killstreaked)

• One for ~2.4 keys

• Five for ~2.45 keys (2 of them are killstreaked and one on next page)

Averaging around $5 in sales on the steam community market (scm): http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Festive%20Shotgun which is roughly 2 keys.

Conclusion: Not enough evidence to substantiate a larger drop, and plenty of current buyers at 2 keys, but with the current SCM value around ~2 keys, I would expect another drop in the near future. I chose 2.35 keys since there's enough sellers to substantiate it in my eyes.