Third time is the charm. 3 sales, 2 of them usable, 1 unusable unsold

Sale 1

Sold for 85 keys.

Hat's history: http://backpack.tf/item/143902386

Seller's BP before the trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054760267?time=1452585600

Seller's BP after trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054760267?time=1452844800

Buyer only recently made his backpack public, so his bp before the sale could not be fetched

Here you can see the agreement between the buyer (current owner) and the seller (pixxul): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27394726 last offer. That and 85 keys showing up in the seller's backpack 3 days after the toque magically disappears from his backpack, it's almost certain the toque underwent a trade hold and that it sold for 85 keys.

Sale is 1 month and a half-ish old, should be good enough considering it and sale 2 are the only ones in a while

Sale 2

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Tough%20Guy's%20Toque

Sold for $184.13 SCM

drummerkidd: http://i.imgur.com/6ZesCNR.png

drummerkidd: http://i.imgur.com/z8k4BtA.png

http://puu.sh/nGyK5/af0ba5a0ac.png - buyer confirming

Dividing that amount by $2.5 gives us = 73.625 rounding to 74 keys.

Outlier

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Tough%20Guy's%20Toque

Sold for $162.43 SCM funds. (allegedly)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132?time=1456041600 - toque appeared in his backpack on the 21th of February, date coincides with sale for $162.43.

http://puu.sh/nwKt3/db01293d83.jpg - buyer confirming

Dividing that amount by $2.5 (average key price on Feb. 21) gives us 64.972 = rounding to 65 keys. Between the 20 and 21st the buyer sold 95 keys, it is unknown whether they had SCM funds beforehand. Seems safe to say it sold for 65 keys. However, due to the sale's nature and lack of proof I believe it's safe to judge it as an outlier

Unusable unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27862842 -- "quickselling" 70 keys for 2 weeks, only retracted offers

Very poorly bumped -> unusable

Criticism, if any, is appreciated.