Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 17–17.33 ref

Impressive for a first suggestion, though with keys dropping nearly 2 refined in under 24 hours, it might be better to wait a day or two before making a key suggestion, when sellers seem to be stable. That's just me. :P

Inb4 warn, downvoted, permabanned from comments

stable? haha

classifieds is slowing filling up with sellers @ 16 ref, scrap.tf has 150+ unsolds @15.88 . i'd say 17 is very optimistic at this time

no more sellers at 16 :)

yup. market changed quite a bit since then

http://imgur.com/XZr8nfl - Buyers at above this, and classies would show that 17.33 is high anyways - downvote.

Only 2 buyers for above.

2 buyers buying above? Probably quickbuying.

the whole first page of classies is 17 now, upvote, only buyer above this price. Upvote.

Isn't there some kind of cooldown rule?

Besides, the classified sellers are pretty young and are most likely quicksellers.

cooldown is only for small (0.11scrap ) changes

Scrap.tf are buying keys for 16.66 and selling for 17.33. https://scrap.tf/keys

Already have it in my post, but thank you.

Can't seem to find much buyers for 17 ref, might suspect that this may be too low of a bump even.

http://puu.sh/nOe8a/0aac49468b.png - Scrap.tf lowered their selling price for 15.88 with 240 keys available. If things don't change in a few days, this suggestion is clearly too low of a drop.

Just something weird happened.

About 1 hours ago Scrap.tf price was 15.33/15.55 .As soon as i click buy key, the bot send me offers at price with 15.88 ref.And i refresh the page the price became 15.55/15.88.

Well now that keys are stabilized a bit, I think this is a good range for now. We'll see as time goes on.

Scrap.tf moved down to less than 16 ref for some reason and now classifieds is filling up with 16 ref sellers to match em, not sure if 17 is valid anymore.

I guess it's a start. Better than leaving it at 18 for too long.

Ehh idk guess we will have to see how fast the 16 ref sellers sell.

there are now 0 keys in the scrap tf bots.

crap.tf is buying at 17 and selling at 17.22 now with 0 keys. obviously too low if we're gonna use them as a standard (which i hate) . They don't represent the common trade point obviously if they are out of stock no one is selling that low

I know it may seem stupid to ask, but what did you mean by "They don't represent the common trade point obviously if they are out of stock no one is selling that low". Sorry for the annoying question.

well... if they buy at 17 refined, and have none in stock, that means no one has sold their keys to them. MEANING that no one is selling at 17 refined to a very convenient buyer. MEANING that the sellers of keys have higher buyers. clear like mud? :)

they reach zero when they were at 15.66 and the moved their price up in hopes they can get keys in the bots

Suggestion seems good, nice amount of evidence along with further more to support this suggestion. I'm surprised that you've made such a good suggestion for your first attempt, it's on the economy as well which is an extra challenge.

i am not sure to upvote or downvote, as the suggestion seems pretty evident i still feel that we might wait a few more days to let it stablize because yesterday there were sellers at 15refs and now i think its going back up. its just a chain reaction in my opinion. what do you say guys ?

upvote, seems no seller at 18ref

my final conclusion = Downvote. Reason, well that was all a chain reaction but take a look now it seems like the price is going up again. here are some buyers at 17.11 and 17 which makes the range invalid.

Outpost:

17.22 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27983595

17 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25463293

17 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27968175

17 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27982913

Scrap.tf:

idk if it counts or not but ill include it as well - https://scrap.tf/keys

Backpack.tf:

https://gyazo.com/6ee4a24c4b0106a7de6712eaa374d326

So what do you think about this guys ?

How does it make it invalid? My price range is 17-17.33....Thanks for supplying me proof.

no i am just saying because they are supposed to be quickbuyers. aka key bankers so the actual price is usually somewhat more than their buying prices

Like? 17.33?

more like i guess 17.66, i also found a lot sellers at = or > 18refs

You need buyers for counterproof.

yeah i agree with you thats why i didn't include the sellers link, ill see for successful sales and if i find some ill post em here

Also scrap.tf has 0 keys in stock. Hmmmm?

Also there are still people selling on classy's for 17 ref.

Here my theory is proved ! https://gyazo.com/0057e4b7f39d9a0da4f79c1ea83f48f5

Some more proofs - https://gyazo.com/912cdbdc32ee2d9ff3e9eba859771bfe

sold mine for 17.11 http://imgur.com/NMCeZZB upboat on this