Due to the fact it's taken me days to sell this item at 1.66 refined (Literally just now sold it) as well as the fact of the unsolds at 1.77, I'll have to upvote this. I'll see if I can add more proof to this at some point.

EDIT: Not sure if this helps the case but...

Unsolds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27970710 - 2 Refined (Made 2 Days Ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27856420 - 12 Refined (2 Key Pink Paint) (Said they're selling at 1/2 Paint Price) (Made 1 Month Ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27912411 - bp.tf Price (8 Ref Gold Paint) (Said offer for painted items) (Made 2 Weeks Ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27971175 - 3.22 Refined (3 Ref Drab Paint) (I'm guessing 1/2 Paint Price [1.44 - 1.55]) (Made 2 Days Ago)