If you're drinking so much you see planets, you probably shouldn't be driving. I probably shouldn't be doing this suggestion if I'm suggesting this in refined rather than keys. Whoops.

Counter to http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5701bbef83de6b7dbb2b21d9, you had a day to create those minis, so...

Sale 1:

Sold 1:1 with a Massed Flies Chill Chullo. Ignore the Hat to Kill For, was being brokered at the same time the trade took place.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049800876/#!/compare/1456905600/1456992000

Sale comes out at ~36.5, rounding to 37.

Sale 2:

Sold for a Smoking Le Party Phantom (Duped), Smoking Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats (Outdated), and 3 Keys in Sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049800876/#!/compare/1459555200/1459641600

(15 + 27.5 + 3) = 45.5, rounding to ~46 Keys.

Mini on Smoking Party Phantom:

Sold for a Hot Low Profile SMG (FT)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155957933/#!/compare/1459555200/1459641600

SCM:

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Low%20Profile%20SMG%20%28Field-Tested%29

Last 5 Solds (I really don't think that effect matters for these things or sales.):

37.69$ / 2.49$ (avg price of Keys) = 15.137 keys or ~15 Keys

Another Sale for the Phantom:

Sold for a Steaming Towering Pillar of Hats (Outdated at 15, but supporting proof for calculations)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155957933/#!/compare/1459382400/1459814400

Mini on Smoking Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/57031f2f83de6b745909935d

Going with about 27.5 here.

Any suggestions or constructive criticism is always welcome.