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This is not the worst looking hat for the demo and it is not the worst effect. Only about 5 of these hats exist and yet there is still no set price, even after the last suggestion over 2 years ago.
The average Smoking unusual is 25.6 keys, but seeing how this is a robot hat, that does reduce the price.
We can use The Bolted Bicorne as sort of a base to price this because the average price of both are the same, they are both robot hats and roughly the same number of them exist. Smoking Bolted Bicorne's are 14 keys, which is the low value.
However, I propose that the high price should be 16 keys because, although the prices of this hat and the Bolted Bicorne are similar, 7 less of Smoking Tin Capotain's exist compared to Smoking Bolted Bicorne.
In conclusion, the final price should be between 14-16 keys due to its similar price and availability to The Bolted Bicorne and it has less of the Smoking effect when compared to the Bicorne.
One final note,
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/263019527
If you look at the prices that these people are selling other Capotain's at, it would fir right in at the 14 key mark.
Low down effects are being sold for 11 keys and under and more desirable effects are at the 20+ range.
Your price is partly based on availability?
In that case, why isn't my 1:1 retired bubbling Valhalla Helm 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 keys?
My point is; unusual prices are based off of sales, go find some! :^)
You'll need proof for suggestions.
http://backpack.tf/rules