Suggestion: Circling Heart Killer Exclusive at 470–560 keys

Price Suggestion

~89.5 keys

heart

13 votes up

25 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Thu, 14 Apr 16 12:54:45 +0000 by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Item was suggested with this proof:

Sold for Demonflame Company (180) + Duped Secret Bomber (300) + PE Larkin (38)

http://i.imgur.com/6sson25.png

300 + 182 + 38 = 520

Realistically, at time of sale, this was the accurate range (spoke to koala):

Sale #1

Trade Date: 23/02/16

Sold for demonflame company (182) + Duped Secret Bomber (357) + PE Larikin (42) - (Koala sold larikin for 42 in Aussies)

182 + 357 + 42 = 581

Proof: https://imgur.com/a/WkR9j

Mini on PE Larikin:

Trade Date: 29/02/16

aussie knife (24) + Aussie Box (18) = 42

Proof: https://imgur.com/a/xGtDX

Accurate Secret Bomber Mini:

Trade Date: 30/01/16

Sold with 68 keys for a Sulph TC

Sulph TC = 350-500 (mid: 425)

425 - 68 = 357

This inaccurate mini was used instead:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27965865

B/O of 300

Reason it's inaccurate:

#1: Listing was closed with a b/o of 320, not 300

#2: Outpost listing was created a month after sale #1 took place.

#3: Accurate mini trade took place 1 month prior to sale #1, justifying the price of 357 at the time.

#4: User is quickselling @ 320 keys (Proof: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27965865 )

#5: Previous suggestion for the ke at 520 lists the bomber at 350, confirming my mini of 357.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/n2UbDd3.png

Sale #2

Date: 05/04/16

450 keys pure trade:

User quick sold it for 450 keys pure.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/ZJs3Mww.png

Note: a few weeks ago I was offered 472 keys pure, which i declined.

Summary:

Using the more accurate mini on the bomber, accurate mini on larikin, high end is 585, low end is 450.

Considering 450 was a quick sell and reducing high end to accommodate a better range.

I think the suggestion of 470 - 560 is fair.

Didn't have a chance to add this counter proof, as previous suggestion closed in under a day?!

The seller at 300 says the bomber mini is high.

450 took 4 MONTHS. it's not a quick sell.

He upped the price from 300 to 320.

At time of suggestion it was 300.

450 still took many months, I don't think that's quick.

I have talked to the seller at 320*, he is quick selling and said he agrees with this range. Feel free to ask him.

Secondly, frost confirmed that he changed his price to 450 to quick sell when tibbles added him, otherwise the price was not 450 prior.

I don't believe for a second that 450 took 4 months to sell when just a couple of weeks ago i was offered 472 pure.

Offers can't be used as main proof.

You selling forever at 500 and Frost's sale say 560 is high.

If I recall, on your previous suggestion, you used the quick sell price of an item as the backing for your proof. Which btw, was completely inaccurate and not the actual quick sell price. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27965865

Please provide proof to back your accusations.

If you are selling at 500 forever, obviously it's gotta be worth less than that, right?

Your accusations make no sense, and this is manipulation. This will get closed by a mod as all of your proof is bad. You selling it at 500 says it's high. Offers can't be used as main proof.

uh in your "accurate" duped secret bomber mini, you never actually provided proof of any trade happening, you just wrote a bunch of text...?

and the trade that the "inaccurate" mini used that you pointed out does not have a b/o of 300 for the secret bomber...

Sulph TC is outdated. Your mini for bomber is hence wrong, and by default Sale #1 too.

And the low end is bad, because it's an offer.

Once again, this is all bad. Close this kerrr.

Edit:

Sale 1 adds up to 587 keys????

Why are you using 560???

Perhaps people simply don't agree.

The Sulph TC, on classifieds is asking 420, you used a quicksell price as the backing for your previous suggestion, not even an offer or a trade. I think a hat with an outdated price that was used in a trade for the ke is more reliable than a random outpost quick sell price, don't you?

Nope.

If a seller is unsold it's more stable than a hat with no identifiable value. Foamy will close this soon, just do it yourself and stop wasting our time

If the sulph tc sale is outdated, therefore making my mini invalid, then same goes for oddballs previous suggestion, which was accepted based on the same sale? If a sale is outdated, then you can only go by what it was valued at the time of the sale, or dismiss it entirely. You cannot use recent opinions on a hats value from a sale that is considered outdated, as it doesn't reflect the value of the items at the time they were traded.

So in saying that: If the sulph is outdated, it can't be used and invalidates this suggestion and the previous suggestion which was accepted. Because you cannot price a Circling Hearts Killer Exclusive off 1 PROVEN quick sale.

Otherwise if the sulph and mini can be used from the previous suggestion, it is valid here and reflects more accurate prices at the time the trade took place.

You have been attempting to sell this for 500 for months. When the suggestion was made at 500-520, my main concern was that this was too high. The issue has been addressed and fixed.

As for the bomber: duped secret bombers have always sold for ~300. The past while ive been more sales at 320 on it too, but 300 on the bomber is a very reasonable common trading point.

As for the suggestion itself: sales are there and your offer backs up the previously established range. This does not need to be "fixed".

As i have confirmed before, I didn't attempt to sell this for 500 for months, I listed the ke for a period as a quicksell for 499, in which i became too busy with life, travelling and my community to even attempt to sell it. Assuming that high tier hats need to be sold quickly in this economy for the price to be accurate is a grave mistake, that is what quick selling is about.

In this economy listing a hat on outpost, you can expect to wait months before selling or even in some cases receiving an offer. Numerous times my outpost and classified listings expired. This is a price suggestion, its not a price speculation. I have provided mini's to support the sale, using accurate pricing at the time the sale's took place, not recent pricing for a sale that was months ago. Most of my pricing mini's / evidence has been used by oddball in previous suggestions. If you actually go take a look, many times oddball has adjusted the price of the hats to his preference to support the suggestion using the same evidence I have.

Foamy if you think opinions should rule on pricing suggestions then we can go with: I have had numerous high tier traders laughing at the current price of the KE. The sale @ 450 even himself states "that is was kinda dumb but pure", "I was quickselling", "but i just wanted pure".

The whole point of price suggestions is to provide an accurate depiction of the current items price with proof, not speculation, not personal opinions. If you are saying this suggestion lacks proof, then only logical thing to do would be to reverse the previous suggestion as it contains the same sale, with inaccurate prices / proof based on personal opinion. I have provided more evidence than oddballs suggestion which was accepted in under a day. I see nothing wrong with my suggestion.

@oddball, "Sale 1 adds up to 587 keys???? Why are you using 560???"

I could suggest @ 450-585, but i adjusted the low end up by 20 keys because 450 is clearly a quick sell and should not reflect all CE KE prices. In the same regard to be fair I adjusted 585 down to 560 to accommodate a better range which will reflect more accurately the current items value without using quick sales or inflated trades.

P.S. I was warned before I made this suggestion by numerous bp.tf users that my proof looks sufficient but that bp.tf users generally stick together and support each other. I don't believe that's how the price suggestion segment of this site should be handled. It is here for accurate pricing that requires evidence. So far every person who has commented has not provided any counter proof, all you are stating are personal opinions and here say. I strongly believe operating in good faith and ask that you simple look at my proof and suggestions, compare to the previous suggestions and take opinions with a grain of salt. I have made no personal attacks and I expect none in return.

"The whole point of price suggestions is to provide an accurate depiction of the current items price with proof, not speculation, not personal opinions."

"I could suggest @ 450-585, but i adjusted the low end up by 20 keys because 450 is clearly a quick sell and should not reflect all CE KE prices."

"In the same regard to be fair I adjusted 585 down to 560 to accommodate a better range which will reflect more accurately the current items value without using quick sales or inflated trades."

That looks like speculation / personal opinion. Quick sell is 1 month or less. You took longer at 500.

You adjusted prices when now it's inaccurate, and incorrect.

This does not need to be done.

What's your evidence 450 was a quick sell?

If it took more than a month, it's not quick.

Evidence it was a quick sell: http://i.imgur.com/ZJs3Mww.png

Evidence it was never listed at 450 period: http://i.imgur.com/q9KvOVl.png

again, i provide proof, you provide speculation...hmm

Speculation: the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence

That so called "speculation" has been backed by trades and evidence. You however, have provided none.

WHAT EVIDENCE? you NO PROOF to move the range down or up AT ALL

I am surprised as an admin, the first thing you did was comment on something misrepresented vs actually stopping this price suggestion from being flooded and derailed with opinions and no evidence to back them up.

Because YOU'RE WRONG.

A MOD AND SEVERAL OTHER USERS SAYING YOU ARE WRONG, MIGHT MEAN YOU'RE WRONG.

The facts don't lie, period. If I'm wrong, then by all means, your suggestion is wrong and would need to be reversed. If there isn't enough proof to price vote this item, then it shouldn't have been price voted in the first place. If there is, then, by all the evidence, trade history and chats to the sellers I have provided, should be more than sufficient to support this range. Cheers.

I could have just closed the suggestion instantly, but as a courtesy towards the suggester, I explain to them why the suggestion should not pass, and am often willing to give them the time to close it themself. You have been selling for 500 for months, and I know, because "as an admin", I've been monitoring these suggestions as per the first time it was attempted.

But dont worry, next time I see your opinion-based suggestions, I'll just close them without a hassle.

If Frost couldn't sell it for 499 for almost 7 months it's pretty safe to say that 450 is nowhere near a quicksell price.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5677e820ba8d88582aa94aba - was 3 months unsold 4 months ago

It also shows that 520 is too high even