A shitload more sales happened recently.

Sold for a Sunbeams Detective Noir(~50 Keys), a Blizzardy Storm Pampered Pyro,(~33 Keys) and an Orbiting Planets Combustible Kabuto(~20 Keys? I'll price this later).

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058489308#!/compare/1461628800/1461715200

Sold for a Galactic Codex Captain Space Mann(Needs a mini since it became a misc, but I guess ~120?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1461628800/1461715200

Sold for a Massed Flies Patriot Peak(~70 Keys?) and a Terror-Watt Hat to Kill For(~30 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084976847#!/compare/1461801600/1461888000

Sold with a Haunted GHosts Attendant(76 Keys) and ~2 Keys in Sweets for a Frostbite Combustible Kabuto(98 Keys) and a Purple Energy Sheriff's Stetson(~90 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080250669#!/compare/1462060800/1462147200

i assume this sale will be around 110-120 after the stetson is updated.

All these sales seem to be less than 160 Keys, which combining the two sales on your previous suggestion and your current 127 key sale, would rule 160 as an outlier. Personally the current 120 key price should be fine for now, as the unusual's not outdated enough to be refreshed.

This will probably need some more digging into. 160 looks like an outlier.