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Probably very late on this. 1/1 and still unpriced.
Hey look Foamy another sale occurred.
Sale 1:
Sold 1:1 with a Massed Flies Chill Chullo. Ignore the Hat to Kill For, was being brokered at the same time the trade took place.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049800876/#!/compare/1456905600/1456992000
Sale comes out at ~36.5, rounding to 37.
Sale 2:
Sold for a Smoking Le Party Phantom (Duped), Smoking Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats, and 3 Keys in Sweets
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049800876/#!/compare/1459555200/1459641600
(23 + 31.5+ 3) = 57.5, rounding to ~58 Keys.
Mini on Smoking Party Phantom:Sold for a Hot Low Profile SMG (FT)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155957933/#!/compare/1459555200/1459641600
SCM:
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Low%20Profile%20SMG%20%28Field-Tested%29
Last 5 Solds (I really don't think that effect matters for these things or sales.):
37.69$ / 2.49$ (avg price of Keys) = 15.137 keys or ~15 Keys
Another Sale for the Phantom:
Sold for a Steaming Towering Pillar of Hats (Outdated at 15, but supporting proof for calculations)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155957933/#!/compare/1459382400/1459814400
Going with about 31.5 here.
Going with the full value of 23 Keys for the Smoking Phantom, as Dick Scrubbery said here ->
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5703237a83de6b79c01c64b4#comment-5704608686674748517de0b0 (Last suggestion)
Sale 3:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192740165#!/compare/1460592000/1460678400
Sold with a PE Larrikin Robin, Arcana Ye Oiled Baker Boy, and a DaD Sober Stuntman for a Sulphurous Modest + 16 Keys Pure. (~183.5)
Mini on the DaD Sober Stuntman:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206754736#!/compare/1461024000/1461369600
Sold for a duped C9 Armored Authority, which had another sale with a SF Rocket Launcher.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206754736#!/compare/1461369600/1461628800
The duped C9 AA seems really low, and to be honest I can't seem to find any other trackable, useable sales for this hat, so I'll just go with the current price.
183.5 - (37 + 58 + 38) = ~50.5 keys or about 50 keys.
Three sales around 37, 50, and 58. 37 seems too low here, so going with a range of 50-58.
ALSO
Classies has the current owner "quickselling" for 40 keys pure, but his listing is for 60 keys. -> http://i.imgur.com/RoII4xe.png
Only has been recently listed when I was writing this thing.
K then. Dunno what to do with that.
Any suggestions or constructive criticism is always welcome.
It's been unsold here at 40 for 10 days, 37 surely isn't low: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28077813
Depending on how much longer that stays up, you might need to call the higher sales outliers.
some idiot ass bought it and word is it's not leaving his bp:
https://i.gyazo.com/375627053f218aae149597df8ccbb89b.gif