There are listings at lower:

https://gyazo.com/108f1a84552b3ae3ee6c480460e09723.png

Seriously wtf, theres tons of people selling for 9 ref, you are not just showing em, go to classifieds

There's a guy in classifieds selling tons of those for 7.66

Here's his backpack

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325

Classifieds

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=The%20Gun%20Mettle%20and%20Tough%20Break%20Festivizer&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=-1&australium=-1

Proof of his sales

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325#!/compare/1462838400/1462924800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325#!/compare/1462752000/1462924800

There are also tons of sellers at 9 ref, so the high end of your suggestion seems too high imo.

Downvote.

Only 2 9 ref sellers on the first page, needs a drop if anything. Downvote.

Er, there are lower sellers.. But this will most likely rise more with more and more being used. But currently, that isn't the case.

At least as many going for under 9 as over 9 here. Don't think 10 should be in the range based on that one sale alone.