Suggestion: Scorching Flames Chieftain's Challenge at 130 keys

Price Suggestion

~250 keys

scorch

74 votes up

4 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sat, 21 May 16 00:07:53 +0000 by A Delicious Cashew™.

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Comments

Bump. Sales here are 2 months younger than the other suggestion's sale.

Sale 1:

B/O 130 Keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28074095

Sold for Hellfire Baron (80) + Miami Noble (~30) + Duped TS Max (resold for a duped level 1 ts max + 1 ref which sold in under 3 hours for 28 keys & 14.77 ref) + 16 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152708934#!/compare/1461715200/1462060800

Unless the Noble is under 6 Keys, this caps at the buyout of 130.

Outliers:

>1<

Sold for HOUWAR (105):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982776197#!/compare/1460505600/1460592000

Took under 3 days, essentially a QS for pure. Countered by the fact that I was offered 105 in easy-to-sell stranges in under 12 hours of my outpost trade in sale 1, and the vast amount of offers I received in the two-week span

>2<

Sold for a.... TF Logo Stash(<100)?:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967697837#!/compare/1460246400/1460592000

Easily countered by offers of 100 pure and what is stated above.

If there are two sales for less than 130, how is that range an outlier?

As already mentioned, I received multiple offers in two weeks greater than the HOUWAR sale, which already sold fast and can go for pure easily. The speed at which the HOUWAR sale went, combined with the offers, make the stash sale an outlier as well. Please read next time.

Offers =/= Sales

Offers can be used to disprove a range

"Low End: Set the low end no lower than commonly offered / traded values of a hat (see "What is a quicksell?" below)."

"More important is how a sale relates to other sales. If a hat sells for less than commonly offered values in pure or unusuals or for less than common trade points, that is likely a quicksell."

"They are very useful for defining a range and identifying outliers (see section below)"

Just a few offers that could easily be illegitimate?

Fine, I'll screenshot them.

"A few" should not be proper terminology as there are more decent offers than sales.

Duped Burning Tavish Crown(~100?) + N/B Rack(30) http://imgur.com/7zrXbqD (~130, tentative though)

S Pro Batsaber (50) + Pro Aus Scattergun (45) + S Capper(8) + Flamethrower w/ spells(2) https://imgur.com/cTyyBkK (~105 easily)

3 unusual weapons. https://i.imgur.com/LQYVTjW.png The MW Scattergun probably makes the three total ~100, if not more

Scorching Escorter(~60?) + 30 Keys https://i.imgur.com/xqzJkYg.png (~90)

GE Honcho's(~80?) + 10 https://i.imgur.com/3CHYkh1.png (~90)

Atomic Phononaut(~100) + 5 https://i.imgur.com/NexfhOG.png (~105)

D@D Company Man + 1 Key https://i.imgur.com/OphC1lo.png (over 110)

Burning Ketche(~40?) + Logo Rotation(~64?) + DP Slouch(~15?) https://i.imgur.com/QXgDWQo.png (over 110)

TF Logo Well-Wrapped https://i.imgur.com/8qUjHsI.png (Probably 100+ given peace sign's value)

The 100 Pure offer is in the trade.

Given that all of these offers were given in under a 3 week span, I feel that the flat price is justified. The Batsaber combo was offered under 8 hours after posting

1). 3 weeks is a long time... surely it would've been fairly easy to have gotten more than 9 offers xD

2). Out of the few offers you actually got, literally only one was even remotely close to 130

3). The guy who "offered you 130" wasn't even sure that he wanted to do the trade xD

You are missing the point. The offers disprove the Stash sale, and support the exclusion of the HOUWAR sale, which sold quickly for pure anyways. A trade will not always get many offers, especially if the hat is higher-up, since less can afford it. A hat being offered ~100+ repeatedly by multiple people show that ~100 is low. Therefore, the other two sales are excluded.

Sorry but I really don't see how the offers you listed would support your suggestion at all. If 8/9 of the offers you received were 90-110 (not to mention that the 9th offer wasn't even 100% willing to do the trade), how does that in any way support the inclusion of 130 xD

You told me to "Please read next time.", but perhaps you need to try thinking next time >.>

You clearly have not read anything I have said. The offers support the EXCLUSION of the other sales. That leaves one sale left, the 130 sale, which would be higher if not capped at the buyout.

Dude the offers you provided clearly relate to the EXCLUSION of the 130 sale and the INCLUSION of the two lower sales.

If there is literally only one offer that isn't even sure they wan't to do the trade, what makes you think its worth 130????

"Sorry but I really don't see how the offers you listed would support your suggestion at all."

"Honestly, anyone with half a brain could've figured that out..."

Please think about what you are saying before you say it. By saying that my range is inaccurate, you are supporting the inclusion of the other sales, which are proven outliers based on time, and offers received on my trade. Either way, even without offers, there is no logic behind excluding 130, because the Stash sale is ~74, the HOUWAR sale is ~100, and the last sale is ~130. All of these are far apart from each other, so if it weren't for the offers, they would all be included. The Stash sale is excluded due to how fast the HOUWAR sale went, and the HOUWAR sale is excluded due to the fact that the offers I recieved were all around there, from different people, showing the price of ~100/105 is probably too low. I have given my rationale for the price, and will simply sit and wait for a moderator to handle this.

I can confirm some sales.

Sold the TF logo stash for Scorching Challenge (its maybe a outlier) and quicksolded the Challenge for a clean houwar because quick pure.