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The Sale:
Sold for 16 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27878492 - B/O of 16, took ~5 days to sell
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085691904#!/compare/1456473600/1456560000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123957589#!/compare/1455436800/1456732800
X = 16
Couldn’t make sense of any other sales. The buyer from the sale re-listed at 18 keys, supporting the drop:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27898874
Highest buyer on outpost is 15:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27760065
Going with 16 flat