Sale 1:

Sold for 11 keys + Black Buck Turners

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28186736 - B/O of 13, seller confirms sale (legend)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054139011#!/compare/1463788800/1463875200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084166494#!/compare/1463788800/1463875200

X = 12

Sale 2:

Sold for 11 keys + 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28190019 - B/O of 12

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084166494#!/compare/1463875200/1463961600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1463616000/1463875200

X = 11

Sale 3:

Sold for 10 keys + ~2 keys in skins (Seller at 2 keys for scattergun skin)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28191598 - B/O of 11.3

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1463961600/1464048000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154902641#!/compare/1463961600/1464048000

X = 11 (Capped by B/O, rounded down)

Sale 4:

Sold for Aces High Toy Tailor (sweets involved don’t change the sale value here)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154902641#!/compare/1464048000/1464220800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134407457#!/compare/1463875200/1464220800

X = 14

Sales at:

11

11

12

14

Would normally exclude the higher sale in a situation like this, but the sales at 11 and 12 happened pretty quickly. Then again, so did all of the sales here.

Going with 11-14