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Sellers/Unsold for 15 ref:
http://imgur.com/dTgrUvO
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28220323
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28201839 (also in classies)
Buyers within the range:
http://imgur.com/uY3OOLp (Top one is not buying due to having one in stock)
Both buyers counter low end.
Also, this is a highly traded item. I feel like this is very limited proof. Also you need to provide evidence that 16 ref does not sell.
Staying neutral on this for now, while the many sellers at 15 definetly suggests a drop, the buyer at 15.33 is not exactly buying these to keep. My thought process is that the summer shades probably sell for 16 still in servers where people dont use all tools at their disposal, eg classifieds.