Never done a suggestion on something of such value, bear with me here

Sale 1:

Sold with 60 keys for Heart KE

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957#!/compare/1462320000/1462406400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025560677#!/compare/1462320000/1462406400

X + 60 = 485

X = 425

Sale 2:

Sold for:

Duped C9 Pullover (155, mini below)

80 keys

Heart Triboniophorus Tyrannus (53, mini below)

C9 Cold Killer (45)

Heart Chieftain’s Challenge (43)

Heart Hotrod (33.5)

Strange Heart Sammy Cap (?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28154727 - B/O of 450

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025560677#!/compare/1463788800/1463875200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982826963#!/compare/1463788800/1463875200

X = 155 + 80 + 53 + 45 + 43 + 33.5

X = 409.5 + ?

X = 450

Sale should be capped at the B/O of 450. The Sammy Cap is currently priced at 110, and would have to be less than 40 keys to change the value of this sale.

Pullover Mini:

Sold with 20 keys for Screaming Tiger Meet The Medic + Cloud 9 Cotton Head

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27907641 - B/O of 170

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995915986#!/compare/1457078400/1457164800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045312207#!/compare/1457078400/1457164800

X + 20 = 90 + 85

X + 20 = 175

X = 155

Only recent proper sale I could find. Others were either untraceable or bulk.

Tyrannus:

Tyrannus is in-date, however, there are multiple sellers for much cheaper:

http://puu.sh/pdGu9/81c78bfb55.png

1 x 50 - Clean, declined 45 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28204193 (5 days)

2 x 56 – Clean (8 days/12 days)

1 x 58 – Duped (2 months)

1 x 70 – clean (~1 month)

Going with 50-56 (53) for this