I was under the impression that all class updates are treated similar to new prices, requiring 2 sales to price the hat especially with the issue of hype surrounding certain hats as we have seen lately with some updates massively inflating prices that then drop substantially. If it were not reselling then that could be different. But both are on Outpost looking for 600 and classies looking for 550.

There is also an issue with the phononaut being a good representation of its value as it dropped prior to 3 months expiring recently by ~150 keys.

Currently a Strange Unusual one (so generally seen as rarer than the standard) has been looking for 450 for what looks like 2 months now:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28041588