like any new priced item you should really have 2 sales of value to see if they are close, and a third if they aren't to determine the outlier :S

I started looking into those sales, and whew. I'll just put what I found here instead of countering, so you can copy-paste most of this in your resuggestion at 32 keys.

Sale 1: You went to all that trouble for the mini, then forgot to add the value of the pool party! Middle value for the Modest is 28, making the Brainiac 28, and adding the pool party it comes out to 32.

Double checking, since a whole lot of other things moved at the same time in the backpack you're citing:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017279041#!/compare/1463097600/1464220800

I think based on the histories, you're probably right. Day of the sale, Olive moved these things out of backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181440027#!/compare/1464134400/1464220800

But looks like they traded the Summer Hat and Pro Rocket for the Brainiac (solid profit there):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289932761#!/compare/1464134400/1464307200

Then moved the Brainiac + Pool to the seller you mentioned for the knife.

= 32 keys

Nailing down the second sale a little:

Several things moved:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181440027#!/compare/1464307200/1464393600

Looks based on histories that the Gatsby was the only one involved, but...

Closer check, seems like it actually sold for a C. Heart mirror, which was then immediately sold for the C. Heart Gatsby, based on the histories:

Gatsby: http://backpack.tf/item/3829716606

Mirror: http://backpack.tf/item/376224897

Gatsby/Mirror sale? http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163667841#!/compare/1464220800/1464393600

The current owner (who bought it in this sale) also has the knife listed at 37, which matches the month-old mirror price, suggesting that's probably accurate.

= 37 keys

There is another one of these knives that's been moving around, too:

Newly spec KS, shouldn't make a difference, doesn't appear to have been KS during the market sale

http://backpack.tf/item/4593196352

Most recent sale was on market, Crumblewood -> Schlangemann April 14-15:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038501770#!/compare/1460592000/1460678400

Listed on April 11-12:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066065032#!/compare/1460332800/1460419200

Wasn't spec KS last time it was seen in Crumblewood's backpack: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066065032?time=1460324878

So we can check the market. Two sales April 14th unfortunately, for $77.80 average. Just assuming it was the result of an incremental price war where they were about the same price and both got bought, that sale comes out to...

= 27.5-32 keys? Questionable because sale might be lower or higher.

Prior sale, The Doctor -> Crumblewood, 3/30:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066065032#!/compare/1459296000/1459382400

Based on histories, the bubble pipe wasn't involved.

Appears to have sold for:

G. Fetti Killer's Kabuto (20-22, not quite outdated)

Pro Strange Original (11-12: Community market at time of sale, $25-35 = 9-14, most ~$30)

= 32-33 keys

No others in-date, except for some professionals. That makes 3 sales at or around 32 keys, two of which are pretty solid, and one at 37. There is also a Hot FT Blitzkrieg knife currently on the steam market at $75.00 (27-30 keys) which all suggest that the 37 key sale is an outlier.