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Well then
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28188172
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186712911#!/compare/1464134400/1464220800 Sold + Spec Aussie Grenade (18) for Moon Bonnet (67.5)
67.5 - 18 = 49.5 (rounding to 50)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056198948#!/compare/1463184000/1463356800
Bulk.
There's some weird flippy business in the overlooked sale (which is actually two sales)
One looks to be Tyrolean + the Grenade for an Arcana Billycock, which is more or less support.
Let it ride.