Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.10

Price Suggestion

Refined Metal

Submitted Thu, 16 Jun 16 21:12:31 +0000 by ★ Salvage

50.43%

$0.10–$0.11

$0.10

~$0.03

639 votes up

628 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Tue, 28 Jun 16 20:12:07 +0000 by the submitter.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Time to get rid of this range.

Sellers @0.10:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal - probably tons in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27679068 - 754 in stock

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1278815 - 556 in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28174758 - 1 month - 2 in stock, I guess he would turn his keys into ref incase someone wanted to buy from him?

Unsolds @0.11:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28241242 - 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27930668 - 3 months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25800964 - 1 year

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 - 1 year

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16142610 - 2 years

No buyers @0.10.

Any Unsolds at $0.11?

Do unsolds support ref suggestion? Gonna find some either way,

$0.10 is still in the current range, so yes, unsolds at $0.11 would help.

Done! :D

The 2 years and 1 year unsolds are not valid, as A) they've sold quite a lot and B) are far too old to be used.

unsolds are way too old, first one expired to inactivity. This has not enough evidence to support a drop in a price fundamental to the tf2 economy.

The thing is, metal has a really small market surpisingly, most people prefer to buy keys for money rather than metal, thus leading to a small refined market.

http://i.imgur.com/ScdeFHe.png

They changed their price, the other sellers @0.1 still stand though.

And they're back @0.10.

Seems like its on and off..

There are sellers at 0.14 on marketplace now

they simple don't make sense.

Back @0.10 now.

Only 1 seller

Uhm, there are 4 different sellers all with a decent amount of metal?

There was one hours ago, guess its updating every min

https://marketplace.tf/itemstats?sku=5002;6

http://i.imgur.com/b48gSDZ.png

According to this, a drop seems VERY unnecessary, it might even need a raise seeing as someone recently bought out like everything that was less than 0.13 according to someone on the forums. can't remember who.

Nah, most common trading point on marketplace.tf is still 10 cents (9 cents excluding fees). Also keep in mind only very few people are allowed to sell refined on marketplace.tf (for now at least).

Few are allowed to sell, but basically anyone who wants is allowed to buy, there are 3,000+ sales above 0.10, might be most common, but still easily sellable for more.

well this makes no sense... 2.49/20 = ~ 12.5, why wouldn't we go with that? I mean market.tf sells keys for 2$, so they sell ref for .10. I just assumed that ref would be: [Key Value (in money)] / [Key Value (in ref)]

Hes calculating refined a value of refined based on the current key value of 2.49 (~2$ Received post tax) on the market, and 20 ref per key.

6/21: http://i.imgur.com/SeoGrPw.png

So? Marketplace.tf isn't the only proof for ref, there are many other sellers too, it is not logical to include 0.12 in the range as a normal seller would never be able to sell for that amount.

Not at all enough proof.

Just bought 30 ref for .12

SCREENCAP: http://i.imgur.com/VDPCYbU.jpg

i'm not complaining ???

He's just trying to defend his suggestion @saltyworkingboy

Well guys, regarding of the previous refined' suggestions, when their price drop, price of keys get higher. But if you take it from the other way, if keys are raising, ref are dropping, that's still true if you compare the evolution of key's price of the previous weeks. But for now, we can say that keys aren't raising at all, instead they are dropping (still 20 ref but bots are buying for 19.88 now), so regarding these information, either we should keep the actual price for refined, either we should raise it (don't really need a raise in my opinion).

Just compiled a new list of all sellers and buyers on Outpost and Bazaar:

Outpost:

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27695301 [0.095]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27679068 [0.10]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28276234 [0.10]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28174758 [0.10]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28273758 [0.10]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 [0.11]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28274631 [0.11]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28275498 [0.11]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27930668 [0.11]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28262814 [0.11]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25800964 [0.11] (badly bumped)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28248686 [0.12]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27605249 [0.13]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25992849 [0.13]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 [0.13]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22987756 [0.13]

Buyers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27844427 [0.09]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27605249 [0.09]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18303623 [0.085]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26881357 [0.08]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27809636 [0.08]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25674193 [0.08]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 [0.08]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25699305 [0.08]

Bazaar:

Sellers:

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1278815 [0.10]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1449955 [0.11]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1443080 [0.12]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1433052 [0.12]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1421950 [0.13]

Buyers:

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1449955 [0.09]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1443906 [0.09]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/735469 [0.08]

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1387055 [0.08]

No buyers but multiple sellers @0.10, a normal seller would never be able to get 0.12 for their ref which is why it should not even be considered to be in the range, the multiple sellers @0.10 show that you can easily get your ref for 0.10. The sales @0.12 on marketplace only occur because it is the fastest and easiest way to get your ref which is also why a majority of the mods disagree with having marketplace as your only proof.

"normal seller" kek. And yes it's very easy to get 12. But since it's convenient it does count, right? Lmfao

Show me any proof of a sale @0.12 outside of marketplace.tf?

Just left an elaborate comment on the other suggestion.

I disagree with this suggestion, solely because your unsolds are not actually unsolds:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28241242 neglectible stock + inactive

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27930668 very low stock, very poorly advertised, has sold over the course of 3 months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25800964 200 views in over a year; needless to say hes very poorly advertising

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 Changes prices from time to time, obviously exchanged significant amounts at his prices. current stock is <100

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16142610 sold out, 0 stock, inactive.

For items such as refined, you can safely assume that trades that have been created a year ago do not constitute 'unsolds'.

Even though the unsolds might not be all that valid, there are still quite a few sellers @0.10 that are active and that is why I think that 0.11 should be left out of the range as the sellers show that noone would buy metal for 0.11.

The problem I have with the other suggestion and how I see this whole marketplace.tf situation is this:

To my understanding backpack.tf is supposed to reflect the value an item is commonly exchanged for in the community, thus leading to marketplace.tf not being valid proof since their sales don't really happen in the community. Backpack.tf shows values that a seller can expect to receive for their item I really don't think that 0.12/0.11 should be in the range as a normal seller would never be able to receive that amount, that's also the reason why craft hats are valued 1.22 and not 1.22 - 1.33 even though scrap.tf manages to sell them @1.33, a normal seller would never be able to get 1.33 for a craft hat, thus leading to the price being 1.22 flat, I am open to discuss this, feel free to reply.

But 0.10 is already in the range, and theres evidently sales at 0.11; I dont see 0.10 as better than current.

I also dont think craft hats and refined should be compared. hats that sell for more than 'craft hats' can also mean that those hats do not belong in the craft hat blanket.

I have never traded cash for ref so I probably wont be handling either of the suggestions. Im personally against this one and neutral on the other.

Still, there are a few valid unsolds @0.11 and quite a few sellers @0.10, I don't see any reason for 0.11 to be in the range.

well no; as said, there are no valid unsolds here.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 - 1 year - well bumped - 2.8k views, not 200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28274631 - 1 week - well bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28275498 - 6 days - well bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28262814 - 1 week - well bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428078 Addressed above* (the 200 views trade was a different link)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28274631 neglectible

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28262814 Sold over 70% of his stock and is not well bumped (23hrs since last bump)

*Note that opposed to unusuals, a listing 1 year old does not mean he is unsold. You dont make a listing to sell 1 refined, and close it or grey it out when you sell one. The trade being that old indicates that he has been selling refined for a year. Also note that he states that his prices are subject to change.

Basically all refined sellers are like that, there are barely any that just sell out and then close the trade.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28262814 lowered to 0.10, not sure whether he lowererd before selling or after, that's another seller @0.10 (even though he is borderline bumped)

So, that leaves 2 valid unsolds (out of 3 sellers) @0.11 and 7 sellers @0.10 showing that 0.10 is the most common trading point.

I still dont see valid unsolds; The "unsolds" youve pointed out get sales, so theyre not unsold. one of them even sold his entire stock of 300+ in a short amount of time, while being inactive. .10 is already in the range, which was set quite recently, and I dont see any reason to change this based on the evidence allotted. the quantity here is not determined by the amount of sellers, but by the sales volume. 1 seller that sells 500 refined or one that flips refined weighs far more than 10 sellers that sell 10 refined each, and Im not confident that .11 should be ruled out based on a few sellers with minimal stock that rarely bump their trade and/or change their prices, or .11 sellers that clearly still sell their refined.

Based on outpost sellers, .10-.11 is still a fair common trading point, and thats even excluding the ongoing discussion on the other suggestion about marketplace.tf, where - as far as I can see here - the majority of sales take place.

It was nice to have someone who argued logically, your arguments are definitely valid and I agree at this point, even if the other suggestion is worse than this I will happily close this after hearing your valid counter-arguments.