Hah, you can relax a little, we don't bite that much usually.

Looks like there are only five of these, and only a grand total of three sales.

The sale before you is not too fun to track down, as it turns out. Looks like it sold alongside about 40-45 keys of other stuff, and the guy who had it to start with had the 15-day trade delay, since the items left his backpack 4/30-ish and showed up in the backpack of the guy he sold them to 5-15:

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063315239#!/compare/1461974400/1462492800

Buyer, time of arrival:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1463184000/1463270400

Buyer, time of purchase:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1461888000/1461974400

Not clear which stuff that left the buyer's backpack was associated, and frankly a trade where it made up ~1/3 of the value with a guy who almost never trades is probably going to be a a rip off, buuuut tentatively, looks like all that stuff went for an aussie sniper rifle. May have been some keys involved also, but if we took the sniper as the value, this hat would be priced at about minus-15 keys.

There's only one other sale for one of these, and it looks like it was somebody just dumping almost everything they could sell on the market:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137103048#!/compare/1462665600/1466812800

Unfortunately can't tell exactly when it sold, because the guy who bought it also doesn't have a regularly-indexed backpack, so "mysteriously-priced market sale" it is.

So... three sales, one of which is basically untrackable, and another of which is probably a rip off, and then yours. None currently on the steam market or listed in the classifieds or outpost. Not too out of line with the other effects on this hat, which doesn't have the massive 3rd-gen oversupply like a lot of the hats that have been unboxable over the last couple of years.

Looks like it pretty much checks the boxes for a hat that can be priced by a single sale to me?