Sale 1:

Sold for Disco Beat Down Well Wrapped Hat (135) + Cloud Moon Stately Steel Toe (28) + Haunted Ghosts Defiant Spartan (36)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082533621#!/compare/1465689600/1465776000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062425416#!/compare/1465603200/1465689600

X = 200 (rounded from 199)

Sale 2:

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Chill Chullo (140) + Logo Kiss King (55) + 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28255221 - B/O of 190

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062425416#!/compare/1466208000/1466294400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068404730#!/compare/1466208000/1466294400

X = 190 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for Scorching Tyrannus (110) + Vivid Plasma Ballcap (76.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28083047 - B/O of 200

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991222458#!/compare/1465171200/1465516800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082533621#!/compare/1465171200/1465516800

X = 185 (Rounded from 186.5)

Sale 4:

Sold for Stormy 13th Connoisseur’s Cap + Abduction Universal Translator (68)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068404730#!/compare/1466467200/1466553600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120147285#!/compare/1466467200/1466553600

Couldn’t get a mini on the Connoisseur’s Cap, looks like an outlier anyways.

No current sellers

Sales at:

185

190

200

Going with 185-200

Addressing Sale 2:

The high-end for the current suggestion for the Chullo should not be used there, so the 120 key sale is the only valid sale in there. The 120 key sale, however, sold in about 1-2 days after lowering the B/O from 180 to 120

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070443280#!/compare/1464393600/1464480000 - Compare link between 28th-29th of May

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28202877 Trade created on the 27th of May, relisted multiple times

However, on the off-chance that 120 is the correct price for the Chullo, this would put Sale 2 at 120 + 55 + 11 = 186, which fits in the range anyways.